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What determines macroeconomic volatility? A cross-section and panel data study

Author

Listed:
  • Leonidas Spiliopoulos

    (University of Sydney)

Abstract
This paper examines the determinants of the volatility in growth rates, seeking to expand on a very limited literature which has focused almost exclusively on financial determinants of volatility. An analysis of 41 variables and their effects on growth volatility yields some surprising results: the relationship between financial sophistication and volatility is not clearly positive as expounded in many studies, the oft cited negative relationship between real GDP per capita and volatility turns out to be positive, and there is no important relationship between inflation and volatility. The main policy implication for authorities is that intervention in most cases, whether in the form of trade and currency controls, or high government consumption, tends to exacerbate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonidas Spiliopoulos, 2005. "What determines macroeconomic volatility? A cross-section and panel data study," Macroeconomics 0505026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0505026
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 39
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0505/0505026.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    2. Denizer Cevdet A. & Iyigun Murat F. & Owen Ann, 2002. "Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, October.
    3. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    4. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    5. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Christopher Kent & Kylie Smith & James Holloway, 2005. "Declining Output Volatility: What Role for Structural Change?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
    8. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 1995. "What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 634-647, September.
    10. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    11. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
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    13. Pantelis Kalaitzidakis & Theofanis P. Mamuneas & Thanasis Stengos, 2000. "A non-linear sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 604-617, August.
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    15. Thanasis Stengos & Theofanis P. Mamuneas & Pantelis Kalaitzidakis, 2002. "Specification and sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 645-656.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pamela Góngora Salazar, 2010. "Determinantes de la volatilidad en el producto: evidencia empírica," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-47, October.
    2. Ghulam Mohey-ud-din & Muhammad Wasif Siddiqi, 2016. "Determinants of GDP Fluctuations in Selected South Asian Countries: A Macro-Panel Study," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 483-497.
    3. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, 2006. "Explaining policy volatility in developing countries," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/583, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatility; international economics; international finance; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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