[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0409022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK. Econometric analysis for the period 1970-1998

Author

Listed:
  • Bharat Barot

    (National Institute of Economic Research, Sweden)

  • Zan Yang

    (Institute for Housing & Urban Research, Sweden)

Abstract
We estimate quarterly dynamic housing demand and investment supply models for Sweden and UK for the sample period 1970-1998 using an Error Correction Method (ECM). This method requires as a preliminary step that we test for the order of integration and cointegration. The ECM models seem appropriate as the dynamics of both short-run (changes) and (long- run levels) adjustment processes are modelled. To facilitate comparisons of results between Sweden and UK we model both countries identically with approximately almost the same exogenous variables. The results indicate that the volatility in house prices and housing investment can be sought in the fundamentals representing the demand and supply sides in accordance with theoretical conceptions and experience of how the housing market works. The long run income elasticities for Sweden and UK are constrained to be 1.0 and 1.0 respectively. The long runs semi- elasticity for interest rates are 2.1 and 0.9 for Sweden and UK. The speed of adjustment on the demand side is 0.12 and 0.23 and on the supply side is 0.06 and 0.48 for Sweden respectively UK. Granger causality tests indicate that income Granger causes prices for Sweden, while for UK there is also a feedback from house prices to income. Prices Granger cause financial wealth for Sweden, while for UK it's vice versa. House prices cause household debt for Sweden, while for UK there is a feedback from debt. Interest rates Granger cause house prices for UK and Sweden. In both countries Tobin’s q Granger cause housing investment. Generally the diagnostic tests indicate that the model specifications were satisfactory to the unknown data generating process. Keywords: House prices, Housing investment, Tobins' q, Error Correction, Cointegration, long run and elasticities, forecasting ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bharat Barot & Zan Yang, 2004. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK. Econometric analysis for the period 1970-1998," Macroeconomics 0409022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0409022
    Note: Type of Document - pdf
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0409/0409022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    2. repec:bla:scandj:v:97:y:1995:i:3:p:421-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bharat Barot, 2001. "An Econometric Demandsupply Model For Swedish Private Housing," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 417-444, December.
    4. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    5. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. "On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
    6. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.
    9. Ming-Chi Chen & Kanak Patel, 1998. "House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 101-126.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1998_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson, 1998. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour: Some Recent Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 208, OECD Publishing.
    12. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. P. Arestis & A.R. Gonz�lez, 2014. "Modelling the housing market in OECD countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 131-153, March.
    2. Ms. Rima A Turk, 2015. "Housing Price and Household Debt Interactions in Sweden," IMF Working Papers 2015/276, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ene Kolbre & Angelika Kallakmaa-Kapsta & Taavi Ojala, 2009. "Estonian Housing Market: Searching for Origins of the Boom," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 1(2).
    4. Rehman, Saira & Moutinho, Nuno & Alves, Jorge, 2020. "The Relationship Between Portuguese Economy Indicators And Housing Prices," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 8(4), pages 270-286.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barot, Bharat, 2002. "Growth and Business Cycles for the Swedish Economy 1963-1999," Working Papers 79, National Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Barot, Bharat & Yang, Zan, 2002. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the United Kingdom: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-1998," Working Papers 80, National Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    4. Magdalena Zachłod-Jelec, 2008. "Koncepcja bogactwa gospodarstw domowych. Szacunki dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 19-50.
    5. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5.
    6. N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2001. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: The tradition is questioned," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 312, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    7. Baltagi, Badi H & Mokhtari, Manouchehr, 1990. "Intercountry Evidence on the Performance of the Simple Error Correction Mechanism Model of Consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 303-314.
    8. Ciarlone, Alessio, 2011. "Housing wealth effect in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-417.
    9. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    10. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    11. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "Multicointegration in US consumption data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 819-833.
    12. PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "Rethinking Error Correction Model in Macroeconometric Analysis: A Relevant Review," MPRA Paper 102644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Signe Rosenberg, 2015. "The Impact of a Change in Real Estate Value on Private Consumption in Estonia," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 7(2).
    14. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, September.
    15. Sanati, Youssef, 2019. "Der Wirtschaftsstandort Iran zwischen Förderung und Sanktion: Eine ARDL-modellbasierte Analyse ausländischer Investitionen," Arbeitspapiere 186, University of Münster, Institute for Cooperatives.
    16. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
    17. Matallah, Siham & Zerigui, Khadidja & Matallah, Amal, 2024. "Renewable energy solutions to the lack of access to electricity in conflict-ridden countries: A case study of Yemen," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    18. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2011. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, February.
    19. Luis Miguel Pacheco & Jose Martins Barata, 2005. "Residential and Stock Market Effects on Consumption across Europe," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 255-278.
    20. Uwe Hassler & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 59-74, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Housing investment; Tobins' q; Error Correction; Cointegration; long run and elasticities; forecasting ability.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0409022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.