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Real Exchange Rates, Saving and Growth: Is there a Link?

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Abstract
The view that policies directed at the real exchange rate can have an important effect on economic growth has been gaining adherents in recent years. Unlike the traditional “misalignment" view that temporary departures of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level harm growth by distorting a key relative price in the economy, the recent literature stresses the growth effects of the equilibrium real exchange rate itself, with the claim being that a depreciated equilibrium real exchange rate promotes economic growth. While there is no consensus on the precise channels through which this effect is generated, an increasingly common view in policy circles points to saving as the channel of transmission, with the claim that a depreciated real exchange rate raises the domestic saving rate -- which in turn stimulates growth by increasing the rate of capital accumulation. This paper offers a preliminary exploration of this claim. Drawing from standard analytical models, stylized facts on saving and real exchange rates, and existing empirical research on saving determinants, the paper assesses the link between the real exchange rate and saving. Overall, the conclusion is that saving is unlikely to provide the mechanism through which the real exchange rate affects growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter J. Montiel & Luis Servén, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates, Saving and Growth: Is there a Link?," Center for Development Economics 2008-06, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    • Handle: RePEc:wil:wilcde:2008-06
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    3. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    4. Petri Böckerman & Mika Maliranta, 2013. "Outsourcing, Occupational Restructuring, and Employee Well-Being: Is There a Silver Lining?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 878-914, October.
    5. World Bank, 2013. "Republic of Armenia : Accumulation, Competition, and Connectivity," World Bank Publications - Reports 16781, The World Bank Group.
    6. Grekou, Carl, 2015. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 142-154.
    7. Dai Pham & Sarath Delpachitra, 2014. "Does Real Exchange Rate Depreciation Boost Capital Accumulation? An Intertemporal Analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3-4), pages 230-244, December.
    8. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Influence of economic factors on disaggregated Islamic banking deposits: Evidence with structural breaks in Malaysia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 13-28.
    9. Wang, Yiwei & Wang, Ke & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "The impacts of economic sanctions on exchange rate volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 58-65.
    10. Lian An & Xiaomei Ren & Huimin Li & Jing Xu, 2017. "Exchange Rate And Us Macroeconomy: Evidence From The Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 483-508, June.
    11. Smith, Constance E., 2011. "External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1195-1213, October.
    12. Blanchard, Emily & Willmann, Gerald, 2011. "Escaping a protectionist rut: Policy mechanisms for trade reform in a democracy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 72-85, September.
    13. Nicolás Magud & Sebastián Sosa, 2013. "When And Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease And Growth," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 1-27.
    14. Abdorasoul Sadeghi & Hussein Marzban & Ali Hussein Samadi & Karim Azarbaiejani & Parviz Rostamzadeh, 2022. "Financial intermediaries and speculation in the foreign exchange market: the role of monetary policy in Iran’s economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, December.
    15. Wlasiuk, Juan Marcos, 2013. "The Mechanics of Real Undervaluation and Growth," MPRA Paper 56628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Lin, Justin Yifu & Monga, Celestin, 2010. "The growth report and new structural economics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5336, The World Bank.
    17. World Bank, 2011. "Turkey - Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) : Sustaining High Growth - The Role of Domestic savings : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 12264, The World Bank Group.
    18. Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2008. "Export surges : the oower of a competitive currency," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4750, The World Bank.
    19. Emara, Noha & KASA, Hicran, 2020. "The Non-Linear Relationship between Financial Access and Domestic Savings," MPRA Paper 99256, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate; saving; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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