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New Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution of Land for Capital

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Ahlfeldt
  • Daniel McMillen
Abstract
We reconcile conflicting evidence on the magnitude of the elasticity of substitution of land for capital, which is a key determinant of the relationship between the price of land and the density of land use. We first compare the performance of classic estimation approaches with a new estimation procedure using a series of Monte Carlo experiments. We then apply the approaches to various real-world data sets drawn from Berlin, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. Our results indicate that many existing estimates are likely to be biased downward, and the true elasticity is likely to be closer to one than widely believed in the literature. The results suggest that a Cobb-Douglas form is a reasonable approximation to of the production function for housing.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Daniel McMillen, 2014. "New Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution of Land for Capital," ERSA conference papers ersa14p108, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa14p108
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    File URL: https://www-sre.wu.ac.at/ersa/ersaconfs/ersa14/e140826aFinal00108.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    2. Raurich, Xavier & Sala, Hector & Sorolla, Valeri, 2012. "Factor shares, the price markup, and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 181-198.
    3. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Duranton, Gilles & Gobillon, Laurent, 2012. "The Costs of Agglomeration: Land Prices in French Cities," IZA Discussion Papers 7027, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Albouy, David & Ehrlich, Gabriel, 2018. "Housing productivity and the social cost of land-use restrictions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 101-120.
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    7. Revankar, Nagesh S, 1971. "A Class of Variable Elasticity of Substitution Production Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 61-71, January.
    8. Kau, James B. & Sirmans, C. F., 1979. "Urban land value functions and the price elasticity of demand for housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 112-121, January.
    9. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M., 2011. "Blessing or curse? Appreciation, amenities and resistance to urban renewal," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 32-45, January.
    10. McMillen, Daniel P., 1996. "One Hundred Fifty Years of Land Values in Chicago: A Nonparametric Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 100-124, July.
    11. Thorsnes, Paul, 1997. "Consistent Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution between Land and Non-Land Inputs in the Production of Housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 98-108, July.
    12. Akos Valentinyi & Berthold Herrendorf, 2008. "Measuring Factor Income Shares at the Sector Level," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 820-835, October.
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    19. McMillen, Daniel & O’Sullivan, Arthur, 2013. "Option value and the price of teardown properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 71-82.
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    21. Arnott, Richard J & Lewis, Frank D, 1979. "The Transition of Land to Urban Use," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(1), pages 161-169, February.
    22. Clapp, John M., 1979. "The substitution of urban land for other inputs," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 122-134, January.
    23. Dowall, David E. & Alan Treffeisen, P., 1991. "Spatial transformation in cities of the developing world : Multinucleation and land-capital substitution in Bogota, Colombia," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 201-224, July.
    24. Nicholas Kaldor, 1961. "Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth," International Economic Association Series, in: D. C. Hague (ed.), The Theory of Capital, chapter 0, pages 177-222, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Molloy, Raven & Nathanson, Charles G. & Paciorek, Andrew, 2022. "Housing supply and affordability: Evidence from rents, housing consumption and household location," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Rainald Borck & Jan K. Brueckner, 2018. "Optimal Energy Taxation in Cities," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(2), pages 481-516.
    3. Borri, Nicola & Reichlin, Pietro, 2018. "The housing cost disease," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 106-123.
    4. Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2023. "Unbalanced Growth and Land Overvaluation," Papers 2307.00349, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    5. Sevrin Waights, 2019. "The preservation of historic districts—is it worth it?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 433-464.
    6. Or Levkovich & Jan Rouwendal, 2016. "Spatial Planning and Segmentation of the Land Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-018/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Gregory Casey & Ryo Horii, 2019. "A Multi-factor Uzawa Growth Theorem and Endogenous Capital-Augmenting Technological Change," 2019 Meeting Papers 1458, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Miles, David & Sefton, James, 2017. "Houses across time and across place," CEPR Discussion Papers 12103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Kenneth G. Stewart, 2022. "How important are land values in house price growth? Evidence from Canadian cities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 249-271, February.
    10. Tan, Ya & Wang, Zhi & Zhang, Qinghua, 2020. "Land-use regulation and the intensive margin of housing supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Borck, Rainald, 2016. "Will skyscrapers save the planet? Building height limits and urban greenhouse gas emissions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 13-25.
    12. Lang, Bree J., 2015. "Input distortions in the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit: Evidence from building size," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-128.
    13. Michael D. Eriksen & Anthony W. Orlando, 2022. "Returns to Scale in Residential Construction: The Marginal Impact of Building Height," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 534-564, June.
    14. Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2023. "Unbalanced Growth, Elasticity of Substitution, and Land Overvaluation," CIGS Working Paper Series 23-014E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    15. Yoshida, Jiro, 2016. "Structure Depreciation and the Production of Real Estate Services," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 44, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    16. Raven S. Molloy & Charles G. Nathanson & Andrew D. Paciorek, 2020. "Housing Supply and Affordability: Evidence from Rents, Housing Consumption and Household Location," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elasticity of substitution; housing production function; land values; Monte Carlo simulatio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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