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Neither a borrower nor a lender : does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?

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  • Dollar, David
  • Kraay, Aart
Abstract
China in the past few years has emerged as a net foreign creditor on the international scene with net foreign assets slightly greater than zero percent of wealth. This is surprising given that China is a relatively poor country with a capital-labor ratio about one-fifth the world average and one-tenth the U.S. level. The main questions that the authors address are whether it makes economic sense for China to be a net creditor and how they see China's net foreign asset position evolving over the next 20 years. They calibrate a theoretical model of international capital flows featuring diminishing returns, production risk, and sovereign risk. The calibrations for China yield a predicted net foreign asset position of -17 percent of China's wealth. The authors also estimate nonstructural cross-country regressions of determinants of net foreign assets in which China is always a significant outlier with 5 to 7 percentage points more of net foreign assets relative to wealth than is predicted by its characteristics. China's extensive capital controls can explain why its current net foreign asset position is far away from what is predicted by open-economy models and cross-country empirics. It seems reasonable to assume that China's international financial integration will increase over time. The authors calibrate and predict different scenarios out to 2025. These scenarios are necessarily speculative, but it is interesting that they typically imply negative net foreign asset positions between 3 and 9 percent of wealth. What may be counter-intuitive for many policymakers is that successful institutional reform and productivity growth are likely to lead to more negative net foreign asset positions than occurs with stagnation. Starting from China's zero net foreign assets position, it would take current account deficits in the range of 2-5 percent of GDP to reach any of these net foreign assets positions. These are not unreasonable deficits, but they require a large adjustment from the present 6 percent of GDP current account surplus.

Suggested Citation

  • Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2005. "Neither a borrower nor a lender : does China's zero net foreign asset position make economic sense?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3801, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3801
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip R Lane, 2014. "External Funding and Long-term Investment," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Matthew Read (ed.),Financial Flows and Infrastructure Financing, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2013. "What drives China's current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 856-883.
    3. Wei, Shang-Jin, 2006. "Connecting two views on financial globalization: Can we make further progress?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 459-481, December.
    4. Prasad, Eswar S., 2009. "Is the Chinese growth miracle built to last?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 103-123, March.
    5. Chia, W.M. & Jinjarak, Y. & Rana, P. & Xie, T., 2014. "Net foreign assets and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-53.
    6. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    7. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Integration: A European Perspective," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp265, IIIS.
    8. Shen, Wei, 2012. "Deconstructing the myth of Alipay Drama—Repoliticizing foreign investment in the telecommunications sector in China," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 929-942.
    9. Guonan Ma & Zhou Haiwen, 2009. "China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position," BIS Working Papers 286, Bank for International Settlements.

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    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Investment and Investment Climate; Capital Flows; Economic Growth; Banking Law;
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