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Does Rainfall Matter for Economic Growth ? Evidence from Global Sub-National Data (1990-2014

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  • Damania,Richard
  • Desbureaux,Sebastien Gael
  • Zaveri,Esha Dilip
Abstract
Much micro-econometric evidence suggests that precipitation has wide ranging impacts on vital economic indicators such as agricultural yields, human capital, and even conflict. And yet paradoxically most macro-econometric evidence (especially in the climate economy literature) finds that precipitation has no robust and significant impact on various measures of aggregate economic output. This paper argues that spatial aggregation of weather at the country level explains this result. The paper uses annual subnational gross domestic product data to show a concave relationship between precipitation and local gross domestic product growth between 1990 and 2014. It then demonstrates that when the data are aggregated at larger spatial scales, the impact decreases and eventually vanishes. The impact of precipitation on aggregate economic activity is predominantly felt in developing countries; it is insignificant in developed countries. Agriculture is found to be the dominant pathway. The results have significant consequences for measuring the economic impacts of climate change.

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  • Damania,Richard & Desbureaux,Sebastien Gael & Zaveri,Esha Dilip, 2019. "Does Rainfall Matter for Economic Growth ? Evidence from Global Sub-National Data (1990-2014," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8888, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8888
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    Cited by:

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    5. Dang, Hai-Anh H & Hallegatte, Stephane & Trinh, Trong-Anh, 2023. "Does Global Warming Worsen Poverty and Inequality? An Updated Review," IZA Discussion Papers 16570, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Rigas, Nikos & Kounetas, Konstantinos, 2021. "The Role of temperature, Precipitation and CO2 emissions on Countries’ Economic Growth and Productivity," MPRA Paper 104727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Richhild Moessner, 2022. "Effects of Precipitation on Food Consumer Price Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9961, CESifo.
    8. Meier, Sarah & Elliott, Robert J.R. & Strobl, Eric, 2023. "The regional economic impact of wildfires: Evidence from Southern Europe," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Clément Nedoncelle & Julien Wolfersberger, 2024. "Weather Shocks and Firm Exports in Developing Countries [Chocs météorologiques et exportations des firmes dans les pays en développement]," Working Papers hal-03753384, HAL.
    10. Araujo, Rafael, 2024. "The value of tropical forests to hydropower," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Anders Christensen & Joel Ferguson & Sim'on Ram'irez Amaya, 2022. "Incorporating High-Frequency Weather Data into Consumption Expenditure Predictions," Papers 2211.01406, arXiv.org.
    12. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    13. Nattapong Puttanapong & Amornrat Luenam & Pit Jongwattanakul, 2022. "Spatial Analysis of Inequality in Thailand: Applications of Satellite Data and Spatial Statistics/Econometrics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-25, March.
    14. Rodrigo Pérez-Silva & Mayarí Castillo & Chiara Cazzuffi, 2023. "Droughts and Local Labor Markets. Studying Heterogenous Effects on Women and Indigenous People in Chile," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 281-302, July.
    15. Li, Chengzheng & Cong, Jiajia & Gu, Haiying & Zhang, Peng, 2021. "The non-linear effect of daily weather on economic performance: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Tony Harding & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Quaas & Wilfried Rickels & Sjak Smulders, 2023. "Climate Damages in Convergence-Consistent Growth Projections," CESifo Working Paper Series 10490, CESifo.
    17. Malpede, Maurizio & Percoco, Marco, 2024. "The long-term economic effects of aridification," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    18. Curzi, Daniele & Nota, Paolo & Di Falco, Salvatore, 2022. "Post-Harvest Losses and Climate Conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321219, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    19. Kennedy Ndue & Melese Mulu Baylie & Pál Goda, 2023. "Determinants of Rural Households’ Intensity of Flood Adaptation in the Fogera Rice Plain, Ethiopia: Evidence from Generalised Poisson Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-19, July.
    20. Wu, Zhiyang & Zhou, Tao & Zhang, Ning & Choi, Yongrok & Kong, Fanbin, 2023. "A hidden risk in climate change: The effect of daily rainfall shocks on industrial activities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 161-180.
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    22. Kayla Stan & Graham A. Watt & Arturo Sanchez-Azofeifa, 2021. "Financial stability in response to climate change in a northern temperate economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.

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