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No Household Left Behind : Afghanistan Targeting the Ultra Poor Impact Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Bedoya Arguelles,Guadalupe
  • Coville,Aidan
  • Haushofer,Johannes
  • Isaqzadeh,Mohammad Razaq
  • Shapiro,Jeremy
Abstract
The share of people living in extreme poverty fell from 36 percent in 1990 to 10 percent in 2015 but has continued to increase in many fragile and conflict-affected areas where half of the extreme poor are expected to reside by 2030. These areas are also where the least evidence exists on how to tackle poverty. This paper investigates whether the Targeting the Ultra Poor program can lift households out of poverty in a fragile context: Afghanistan. In 80 villages in Balkh province, 1,219 of the poorest households were randomly assigned to a treatment or control group. Women in treatment households received a one-off"big-push"package, including a transfer of livestock assets, cash consumption stipend, skills training, and coaching. One year after the program ended -- two years after assets were transferred -- significant and large impacts are found across all the primary pre-specified outcomes: consumption, assets, psychological well-being, total time spent working, financial inclusion, and women's empowerment. Per capita consumption increases by 30 percent (USD 24 purchasing power parity, USD 7 nominal per month) with respect to the control group, and the share of households below the national poverty line decreases from 82 percent in the control group to 62 percent in the treatment group. Using modest assumptions about consumption impacts, the intervention has an estimated internal rate of return of 26 percent, excluding non-monetized improvements in psychological well-being, women's empowerment, and children's health and education. These findings suggest that"big-push"interventions can dramatically reduce poverty in fragile and conflict-affected regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bedoya Arguelles,Guadalupe & Coville,Aidan & Haushofer,Johannes & Isaqzadeh,Mohammad Razaq & Shapiro,Jeremy, 2019. "No Household Left Behind : Afghanistan Targeting the Ultra Poor Impact Evaluation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8877, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8877
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    8. Brune, Lasse & Karlan, Dean & Kurdi, Sikandra & Udry, Christopher, 2022. "Social protection amidst social upheaval: Examining the impact of a multi-faceted program for ultra-poor households in Yemen," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    9. Guigonan S. Adjognon & Daan van Soest & Jonas Guthoff, 2021. "Reducing Hunger with Payments for Environmental Services (PES): Experimental Evidence from Burkina Faso," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 831-857, May.
    10. Balasubramanian, Pooja & Ibanez, Marcela & Khan, Sarah & Sahoo, Soham, 2024. "Does women's economic empowerment promote human development in low- and middle-income countries? A meta-analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    11. Matthew W. Ridley & Gautam Rao & Frank Schilbach & Vikram H. Patel, 2020. "Poverty, Depression, and Anxiety: Causal Evidence and Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 27157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Arlen Guarin & Juliana Londoño-Vélez & Christian Posso, 2023. "Reparations as Development? Evidence from Victims of the Colombian Armed Conflict," Borradores de Economia 1236, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    14. Kondylis,Florence & Loeser,John Ashton, 2021. "Intervention Size and Persistence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9769, The World Bank.
    15. Angelucci, Manuela & Heath, Rachel & Noble, Eva, 2023. "Multifaceted programs targeting women in fragile settings: Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    16. Erica M. Field & Rohini Pande & Natalia Rigol & Simone G. Schaner & Charity Troyer Moore, 2019. "On Her Own Account: How Strengthening Women's Financial Control Affects Labor Supply and Gender Norms," NBER Working Papers 26294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Etienne Lwamba & Shannon Shisler & Will Ridlehoover & Meital Kupfer & Nkululeko Tshabalala & Promise Nduku & Laurenz Langer & Sean Grant & Ada Sonnenfeld & Daniela Anda & John Eyers & Birte Snilstveit, 2022. "Strengthening women's empowerment and gender equality in fragile contexts towards peaceful and inclusive societies: A systematic review and meta‐analysis," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), March.
    18. Aiken, Emily L. & Bedoya, Guadalupe & Blumenstock, Joshua E. & Coville, Aidan, 2023. "Program targeting with machine learning and mobile phone data: Evidence from an anti-poverty intervention in Afghanistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    19. Michael Callen & Miguel Fajardo-Steinhäuser & Michael G. Findley & Tarek Ghani & Michael J. Callen, 2024. "Can Digital Aid Deliver during Humanitarian Crises?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11220, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality; Livestock and Animal Husbandry; Educational Sciences; Gender and Development; Services&Transfers to Poor; Disability; Economic Assistance; Access of Poor to Social Services; Income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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