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Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Abu Bader,Suleiman
  • Ianchovichina,Elena
Abstract
In a behavioral model of civil conflict, foreign military intervention alters the resources available to warring groups and their probability of winning. The model highlights the importance of distributional measures along with the modifying effect of the intervention for conflict incidence. The paper confirms empirically the finding in the literature that ethnic polarization is a robust predictor of civil war, but it also finds evidence that religious polarization is positively and significantly associated with civil conflict in the presence of foreign military intervention of non-humanitarian and non-neutral nature. Such external interventions exacerbate religious polarization, leading to high-intensity conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa region, but not in the rest of the world. These results suggest that, unlike in the rest of the world, where civil conflicts are mostly about a public prize linked to ethnic polarization, in the Middle East and North Africa they are mostly about a sectarian-related public prize. The results are robust to allowing different definitions of conflict, model specifications, and data time spans, and to controlling for other types of foreign military interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Abu Bader,Suleiman & Ianchovichina,Elena, 2017. "Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8248, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8248
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Marius D. May, 2024. "Electing in the dark? Voting behavior in light of polarization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-29, November.
    2. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2019. "Foreign in influence and domestic policy: A survey," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1928, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2021. "Foreign Influence and Domestic Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 426-487, June.
    4. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2019. "Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    5. Sarah Langlotz, 2021. "Foreign Interventions and Community Cohesion in Times of Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 352, Households in Conflict Network.
    6. Islam,Asif Mohammed & Lederman,Daniel, 2020. "Data Transparency and Long-Run Growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9493, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict and Fragile States;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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