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Long-term growth scenarios for Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Sinha,Rishabh
Abstract
Bangladesh has achieved robust economic growth over the past 10 years, with real GDP growing by more than 6 percent on average each year. This paper investigates whether the country will be able to maintain such high levels of growth going forward. A simple growth model calibrated to the Bangladesh economy is used to analyze various growth scenarios. The main finding of the paper is that it is crucial for the country to focus on reforms to raise total factor productivity (TFP) growth, to sustain the high real GDP growth seen in the recent past. The country will fail to achieve high growth in absence of strong TFP growth despite meeting the levels of investment as outlined in the Seventh Five Year Plan. The model is also used to gain insights on government debt sustainability given different growth scenarios. The analysis highlights the significance of meeting revenue targets in maintaining sustainability, considering the planned expansion in expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinha,Rishabh, 2017. "Long-term growth scenarios for Bangladesh," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7952, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7952
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafizur Rahman & Md. Al-Hasan, 2021. "Explaining Pro-Women Gender Wage Gap in Bangladesh," CPD Report 19, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    2. Mustafizur Rahman & Marzuka Md. Al-Hasan, 2019. "Women in Bangladesh Labour Market: Determinants of Participation, Gender Wage Gap and Returns to Schooling," CPD Working Paper 124, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    3. Sanjoy Kumar Saha, 2021. "Sources of Total Factor Productivity in South Asia," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 13(2-3), pages 154-176, December.

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