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Poverty dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012 : insights from longitudinal analysis using synthetic panel data

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  • Dang,Hai-Anh H.
  • Lanjouw,Peter F.
  • Dang,Hai-Anh H.
  • Lanjouw,Peter F.
Abstract
Recent National Sample Surveys point to significant poverty reduction in India since 2004/05, with a marked acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. This paper enquires into important aspects of income mobility between 2004/05 and 2011/12, based on new statistical methods to convert the three pertinent National Sample Survey rounds into synthetic panels. The analysis draws on the synthetic panels to derive a vulnerability line for India that can be used to separate out a population subgroup comprising non-poor households facing a heightened risk of falling into poverty. The paper documents a strong pattern of upward mobility out of poverty and vulnerability into the middle class, with a noticeable acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. The paper further undertakes a careful investigation into the comparability of the survey rounds, prompted by the observation that fairly significant modifications had been made to survey questionnaires. The findings suggest that changes in questionnaire design have not compromised the comparability of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F. & Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F., 2015. "Poverty dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012 : insights from longitudinal analysis using synthetic panel data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7270, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7270
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    Cited by:

    1. Chanda, Areendam & Kabiraj, Sujana, 2020. "Shedding light on regional growth and convergence in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Li, Hao & Millimet, Daniel L. & Roychowdhury, Punarjit, 2019. "Measuring Economic Mobility in India Using Noisy Data: A Partial Identification Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 12505, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. François Bourguignon & A. Hector Moreno M., 2020. "On synthetic income panels," Working Papers halshs-01988068, HAL.
    4. Theresa Beltramo & Hai-Anh Dang & Ibrahima Sarr & Paolo Verme, 2024. "Estimating poverty among refugee populations: a cross-survey imputation exercise for Chad," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 94-113, January.
    5. Hanan G. Jacoby & Basab Dasgupta, 2018. "Changing wage structure in India in the post-reform era: 1993–2011," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, December.
    6. François Bourguignon & A. Hector Moreno M., 2018. "On synthetic income panels," PSE Working Papers halshs-01988068, HAL.
    7. Mehtabul Azam, 2022. "Household income mobility in India, 1993–2011," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 1902-1943, November.
    8. Hai-Anh H. Dang, 2019. "To impute or not to impute, and how? A review of alternative poverty estimation methods in the context of unavailable consumption data," Working Papers 507, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    9. Nicolas Hérault & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2019. "How valid are synthetic panel estimates of poverty dynamics?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(1), pages 51-76, March.
    10. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Verme,Paolo, 2019. "Estimating Poverty for Refugee Populations : Can Cross-Survey Imputation Methods Substitute for Data Scarcity ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9076, The World Bank.
    11. begard Iversen & Anirudh Krishna & Kunal Sen, 2017. "Beyond poverty escapes – social mobility in the Global South: A survey article," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 172017, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    12. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Paolo Verme, 2023. "Estimating poverty for refugees in data-scarce contexts: an application of cross-survey imputation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 653-679, April.
    13. Morteza Ghomi, 2022. "Who is afraid of sanctions? The macroeconomic and distributional effects of the sanctions against Iran," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 395-428, July.
    14. Ines A. Ferreira & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Poverty and vulnerability transitions in Myanmar: An analysis using synthetic panels," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1919-1944, November.
    15. Balcazar Salazar,Carlos Felipe & Desai,Sonal & Murgai,Rinku & Narayan,Ambar, 2016. "Why did poverty decline in India ? a nonparametric decomposition exercise," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7602, The World Bank.
    16. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Peter F. Lanjouw & Umar Serajuddin, 2017. "Updating poverty estimates in the absence of regular and comparable consumption data: methods and illustration with reference to a middle-income country," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 939-962.
    17. Mousumi Das, 2021. "Vulnerability to Food Insecurity: A Decomposition Exercise for Rural India using the Expected Utility Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 167-199, July.

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