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Leading Dragons phenomenon : new opportunities for catch-up in low-income countries

Author

Listed:
  • Chandra, Vandana
  • Lin, Justin Yifu
  • Wang, Yan
Abstract
Modern economic development is accompanied by the structural transformation from an agrarian to an industrial economy and occurs through a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading. Since the 18th century, all countries that industrialized successfully in Europe, North America and East Asia followed their comparative advantage and leveraged the late-comer advantage to emulate the leader-follower flying geese pattern of industrial upgrading. The large dynamic emerging market countries such as China, India and Brazil are also engaged in industrial upgrading but with a critical difference. In particular, because of its sheer size, China has absorbed nearly all labor-intensive jobs and become the world’s largest exporter of labor-intensive products. The current view is that China’s dominance hinders poor countries from developing similar industries. The authors argue that industrial upgrading has increased wages and is causing China to graduate from labor-intensive to more capital- and technology-intensive industries. These industries will shed labor and create a huge opportunity for lower wage countries to start a phase of labor-intensive industrialization. This process, called the Leading Dragon Phenomenon, offers an unprecedented opportunity to low-income Sub-Saharan Africa where the industrial sector is underdeveloped and investment capital and entrepreneurial skills are leading constraints to manufacturing. It can seize the opportunity and resolve the constraints by attracting some of the OFDI flowing currently from China, India and Brazil into the manufacturing sectors of other developing countries. All low-income countries will compete but to catch the jobs spillover from China, the winner must implement credible economic development strategies that are consistent with its comparative advantage.

Suggested Citation

  • Chandra, Vandana & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yan, 2012. "Leading Dragons phenomenon : new opportunities for catch-up in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6000, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6000
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yan, 2014. "China-Africa co-operation in structural transformation: Ideas, opportunities, and finances," WIDER Working Paper Series 046, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Lili Wang & Yi Wen, 2018. "Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: A Cross-Country Analysis on the Patterns of Industrial Upgrading," Working Papers 2018-1, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Monga, Celestin, 2013. "The mechanics of job creation : seizing the new dividends of globalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6661, The World Bank.
    5. Justin Yifu LIN & Yan WANG, 2015. "China’s Contribution to Development Cooperation: Ideas, Opportunities and Finances," Working Papers P119, FERDI.
    6. Kunling Zhang, 2023. "Can the Belt and Road Initiative Promote the Industrialization of Developing Countries?," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(2), pages 215-233, May.
    7. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Dinh, Hinh T., 2013. "Public policy and industrial transformation in the process of development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6405, The World Bank.
    8. Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Xin, 2018. "Trump economics and China–US trade imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 579-600.
    9. Bernhardt, Thomas, 2014. "How promising is South-South trade as a contributor to economic development in Asia and South America? Insights from estimating income elasticities of import demand," MPRA Paper 56413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hinh T. Dinh, 2017. "Jobs, Industrialization, and Globalization," Books & Reports, Policy Center for the New South, number 22.
    11. Philip Schellekens, 2013. "A Changing China : Implications for Developing Countries," World Bank Publications - Reports 16115, The World Bank Group.
    12. Justin Yifu Lin & Yan Wang, 2014. "China-Africa Co-operation in Structural Transformation: Ideas, Opportunities, and Finances," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-046, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Emerging Markets; Achieving Shared Growth; Debt Markets; E-Business;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B10 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy

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