[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rim/rimwps/17-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the relationship between GHGs and Global Temperature Anomalies: Multi-level rolling analysis and Copula calibration

Author

Listed:
  • Elettra Agliardi

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

  • Thomas Alexopoulos

    (Department of Economics, University of Peloponnese, Greece; Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy)

  • Christian Cech

    (University of Applied Sciences BFI, Austria)

Abstract
The relationship between GHG emissions and global warming is studied through multi-level rolling analysis to assess whether or not there are increasing rates in global change as a result of higher levels of anthropogenic emissions, as we move forward in time. Furthermore, in order to assess whether we observe tail-dependence, representing simultaneous occurrence of extreme events, we employ copula methods. Our main findings do not support views of increasing rates in global climate change as a result of higher levels of emissions. On the contrary, they suggest a constant or even a decreasing effect of emissions on temperature anomalies especially from 2005 onward. At the same time, our copula calibration shows that the Frank copula achieves the best fit. Since the Frank copula is a copula that assigns a low probability to joint extreme events, our analysis does not show tail dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Elettra Agliardi & Thomas Alexopoulos & Christian Cech, 2017. "On the relationship between GHGs and Global Temperature Anomalies: Multi-level rolling analysis and Copula calibration," Working Paper series 17-05, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:17-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp17-05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeff Tollefson, 2014. "Climate change: The case of the missing heat," Nature, Nature, vol. 505(7483), pages 276-278, January.
    2. Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Rupert Read & Raphaël Douady & Joseph Norman & Yaneer Bar-Yam, 2014. "The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms)," Working Papers hal-01479405, HAL.
    3. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    4. De Witt, Annick & de Boer, Joop & Hedlund, Nicholas & Osseweijer, Patricia, 2016. "A new tool to map the major worldviews in the Netherlands and USA, and explore how they relate to climate change," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 101-112.
    5. Junichi Fujino, Rajesh Nair, Mikiko Kainuma, Toshihiko Masui and Yuzuru Matsuoka, 2006. "Multi-gas Mitigation Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Using Aim Global Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 343-354.
    6. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    8. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2013. "Scientific Ambiguity and Climate Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 21-46, May.
    9. Brechmann, Eike Christian & Schepsmeier, Ulf, 2013. "Modeling Dependence with C- and D-Vine Copulas: The R Package CDVine," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 52(i03).
    10. Jamie Sanderson & Sardar M. N. Islam, 2007. "Climate Change and Economic Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-59012-0, October.
    11. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    12. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    13. Maxwell T. Boykoff, 2014. "Media discourse on the climate slowdown," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 156-158, March.
    14. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    15. Nicholas Stern, 2008. "The Economics of Climate Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 1-37, May.
    16. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    17. Robert S. Pindyck, 2017. "The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 100-114.
    18. Steven J. Smith and T.M.L. Wigley, 2006. "Multi-Gas Forcing Stabilization with Minicam," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 373-392.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. De Juan Fernández, Aránzazu & Poncela, Pilar & Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2022. "Economic activity and climate change," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 35044, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Phella, Anthoulla & Gabriel, Vasco J. & Martins, Luis F., 2024. "Predicting tail risks and the evolution of temperatures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Marc Gronwald, 2023. "Explosive Temperatures," CESifo Working Paper Series 10680, CESifo.
    4. Elettra Agliardi & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Introduction: Special Issue on the Economics of Climate Change and Sustainability," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 1-4, January.
    5. Khezri, Mohsen & Karimi, Mohammad Sharif & Khan, Y.A. & Abbas, S.Z., 2021. "The spillover of financial development on CO2 emission: A spatial econometric analysis of Asia-Pacific countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rick van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8441, CESifo.
    2. Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 475-501, November.
    3. Loïc Berger & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2017. "Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks Under Model Uncertainty Aversion," Post-Print hal-03027150, HAL.
    4. Loic Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics," Working Papers 616, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. Loïc Berger & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2017. "Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks Under Model Uncertainty Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 749-765, March.
    6. Elettra Agliardi & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2018. "Optimal Scheduling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Carbon Budgeting and Policy Design," DEOS Working Papers 1808, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    7. Luca Gerotto & Paolo Pellizzari, 2021. "A replication of Pindyck’s willingness to pay: on the efforts required to obtain results," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(5), pages 1-25, May.
    8. Moritz A. Drupp & Martin C. Hänsel, 2021. "Relative Prices and Climate Policy: How the Scarcity of Nonmarket Goods Drives Policy Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 168-201, February.
    9. Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
    10. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben, 2016. "How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 152-168.
    11. Johannes Emmerling, 2018. "Sharing Of Climate Risks Across World Regions," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-19, August.
    12. Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2019. "Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 108-129.
    13. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2019. "The agnostic's response to climate deniers: Price carbon!," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 70-84.
    14. Malte Meinshausen & S. Smith & K. Calvin & J. Daniel & M. Kainuma & J-F. Lamarque & K. Matsumoto & S. Montzka & S. Raper & K. Riahi & A. Thomson & G. Velders & D.P. Vuuren, 2011. "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 213-241, November.
    15. Pindyck, Robert S., 2019. "The social cost of carbon revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-160.
    16. Desmet, Klaus & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2015. "On the spatial economic impact of global warming," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-37.
    17. Nicolas Taconet & Céline Guivarch & Antonin Pottier, 2019. "Social Cost of Carbon under stochastic tipping points: when does risk play a role?," Working Papers hal-02408904, HAL.
    18. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. Riccardo Rebonato & Riccardo Ronzani & Lionel Melin, 2023. "Robust management of climate risk damages," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-43, September.
    20. Simon Dietz & Anca N. Matei, 2013. "Is there space for agreement on climate change? A non-parametric approach to policy evaluation," GRI Working Papers 136, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GHGs; Global temperature anomalies; Rolling analysis; Copulas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C69 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:17-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marco Savioli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rcfeait.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.