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Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care?

Author

Listed:
  • Franck Portier

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

  • Dana Galizia

    (Carleton University)

  • Paul Beaudry

    (University of British Columbia)

Abstract
In most modern macroeconomic models, the steady state (or balanced growth path) of the system is a local attractor in the sense that in the absence of shocks, the economy would converge to the steady state. In this paper we examine whether the times series behavior of macroeconomic aggregates (especially labor market aggregates) are in fact supportive of this locally stability view of macroeconomic dynamics or if they instead favor an alternative interpretation whereby the macro-economy may be better characterized as a locally unstable system with deterministic forces that support limit cycle behavior. To do this, we extend standard AR representations of the data to allow for smooth non-linearities using polynomials. Our main finding is that, even using a procedure which may have low power, the data provide considerable support to the view that the macro-economy may be locally unstable. An interesting finding is that the amount of non-linearity we detect in the data is rather minor but it is enough to alter the description of macroeconomic behavior. We also discuss the extent to which these two different views about the inherent dynamics of the macro-economy may matter for policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Franck Portier & Dana Galizia & Paul Beaudry, 2016. "Is the Macroeconomy Locally Unstable and Why Should We Care?," 2016 Meeting Papers 321, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed016:321
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2018. "Reconciling Hayek’s and Keynes’ Views of Recessions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 119-156.
    2. Chao Gu & Fabrizio Mattesini & Cyril Monnet & Randall Wright, 2013. "Endogenous Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 940-965.
    3. Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 441-463.
    4. ,, 2013. "The good, the bad, and the ugly: An inquiry into the causes and nature of credit cycles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), September.
    5. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    6. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    8. Michal Kalecki, 1937. "A Theory of the Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 77-97.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brannan, James, 2019. "On natural slow time rhythms in economic growth," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    2. Frédéric Dufourt & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2022. "Expectations, self-fulfilling prophecies and the business cycle," Working Papers hal-03923946, HAL.
    3. Kazuo Nishimura & Florian Pelgrin & Alain Venditti, 2022. "Medium term endogenous fluctuations in three-sector optimal growth models," Working Papers hal-03923999, HAL.
    4. Pelgrin, Florian & Venditti, Alain, 2022. "On the long-run fluctuations of inheritance in two-sector OLG models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    5. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2022. "Financial destabilization," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
    7. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Arnim, Rudiger von, 2021. "Endogenous fluctuations in demand and distribution: An empirical investigation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 204-220.
    8. Joseph Haslag, 2019. "On Processing Central Bank Communications: Can We Account for Fed Watching?," 2019 Meeting Papers 415, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Filippo Gusella & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2021. "Testing fundamentalist–momentum trader financial cycles: An empirical analysis via the Kalman filter," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 758-797, November.
    10. Karsten Kohler & Robert Calvert Jump, 2022. "Estimating Nonlinear Business Cycle Mechanisms with Linear Vector Autoregressions: A Monte Carlo Study," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1077-1100, October.
    11. Dana Galizia, 2021. "Saddle cycles: Solving rational expectations models featuring limit cycles (or chaos) using perturbation methods," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 869-901, July.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684boj041a440irqd is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Skott, Peter, 2023. "Endogenous business cycles and economic policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 61-82.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8tfri093jil1d739 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8, Sciences Po.
    16. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684, Sciences Po.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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