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Job Search with Subjective Wage Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Drahs, Sascha

    (DIW Berlin)

  • Haywood, Luke

    (DIW Berlin)

  • Schiprowski, Amelie

    (IZA Bonn and DIW Berlin)

Abstract
This paper analyzes how subjective expectations about wage opportunities influence the job search decision. We match data on subjective wage expectations with administrative employment records. The data reveal that unemployed individuals over-estimate their future net re-employment wage by 10% on average. In particular, the average individual does not anticipate that wage offers decline in value with their elapsed time out of em- ployment. How does this optimism affect job finding? We analyze this question using a structural job search framework in which subjective expectations about future wage offers are not constrained to be consistent with reality. Results show that wage optimism has highly dynamic effects: upon unemployment entry, optimism decreases job finding by about 8%. This effect weakens over the unemployment spell and eventually switches sign after about 8 months of unemployment. From then onward, optimism prevents un- employed individuals from becoming discouraged and thus increases search. On average, optimism increases the duration of unemployment by about 6.5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Drahs, Sascha & Haywood, Luke & Schiprowski, Amelie, 2018. "Job Search with Subjective Wage Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 75, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    • Handle: RePEc:rco:dpaper:75
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Emmler, Julian & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2021. "Temporary Overpessimism: Job Loss Expectations Following a Large Negative Employment Shock," IZA Discussion Papers 14149, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Julian Emmler & Bernd Fitzenberger, 2022. "Temporary overpessimism: Job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 621-661, July.
    3. Andreas I. Mueller & Johannes Spinnewijn & Giorgio Topa, 2021. "Job Seekers' Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence, and Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 324-363, January.
    4. Annekatrin Schrenker, 2023. "Causal Misperceptions of the Part-Time Pay Gap," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2031, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Annekatrin Schrenker, 2023. "Causal Misperceptions of the Part-Time Pay Gap," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 372, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    6. Schröder, Carsten & König, Johannes & Fedorets, Alexandra & Goebel, Jan & Grabka, Markus M. & Lüthen, Holger & Metzing, Maria & Schikora, Felicitas & Liebig, Stefan, 2020. "The economic research potentials of the German Socio-Economic Panel study," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 335-371.
    7. Balleer, Almut & Duernecker, Georg & Forstner, Susanne & Goensch, Johannes, 2023. "Wage Bargaining and Labor Market Policy with Biased Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18019, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Annekatrin Schrenker, 2023. "Causal Misperceptions of the Part-Time Pay Gap," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0010, Berlin School of Economics.
    9. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2023. "Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap," CESifo Working Paper Series 10336, CESifo.
    10. Backhaus, Teresa & Schäper, Clara & Schrenker, Annekatrin, 2023. "Causal misperceptions of the part-time pay gap," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    job search; subjective expectations; structural estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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