[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rba/rbardp/rdp2014-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Home Price Beliefs in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Callan Windsor

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Gianni La Cava

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • James Hansen

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract
We document some new stylised facts about how Australian homeowners value their homes using household panel data and unit-record data on home sale prices. We find that homeowners' price beliefs are unbiased at the postcode level, on average, although there is considerable dispersion in the difference between beliefs and prices across postcodes. Household characteristics, such as age and tenure, and the regional unemployment rate are correlated with differences between beliefs and prices. We also find evidence that the difference between beliefs and prices has explanatory power for average household consumption, leverage and portfolio decisions after controlling for the market-inferred value of the home. These facts provide empirical evidence to support recent literature on the importance of belief formation for household decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Callan Windsor & Gianni La Cava & James Hansen, 2014. "Home Price Beliefs in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2014-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2014/pdf/rdp2014-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 197-228, February.
    2. Mark Schneider & Jonathan W. Leland & Nathaniel T. Wilcox, 2018. "Ambiguity framed," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 133-151, October.
      • Mark Schneider & Jonathan Leland & Nathaniel T. Wilcox, 2016. "Ambiguity Framed," Working Papers 16-11, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    3. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2007. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 117-130, June.
    4. Goodman, John Jr. & Ittner, John B., 1992. "The accuracy of home owners' estimates of house value," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 339-357, December.
    5. Ihlanfeldt, Keith R. & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge, 1986. "Alternative value estimates of owner-occupied housing: Evidence on sample selection bias and systematic errors," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 356-369, November.
    6. Marion Kohler & Kylie Smith, 2005. "Housing and the Household Wealth Portfolio: The Role of Location," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2012. "Robust animal spirits," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 738-750.
    8. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Gollier, 2007. "Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 159-165, May.
    9. Orazio P. Attanasio & Laura Blow & Robert Hamilton & Andrew Leicester, 2009. "Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(301), pages 20-50, February.
    10. LAURA BERGER‐THOMSON & ELAINE CHUNG & REBECCA McKIBBIN, 2010. "Estimating Marginal Propensities to Consume in Australia Using Micro Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 49-60, September.
    11. Callan Windsor & Jarkko Jääskelä & Richard Finlay, 2013. "Home Prices and Household Spending," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    13. Katherine A. Kiel & Jeffrey E. Zabel, 1999. "The Accuracy of Owner‐Provided House Values: The 1978–1991 American Housing Survey," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 263-298, June.
    14. James Hansen, 2009. "Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat‐Sales Measures," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 132-145, June.
    15. Sumit Agarwal, 2007. "The Impact of Homeowners' Housing Wealth Misestimation on Consumption and Saving Decisions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 135-154, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ellis Connolly & Gianni La Cava & Matthew Read, 2015. "Housing Prices and Entrepreneurship: Evidence for the Housing Collateral Channel in Australia," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Angus Moore & John Simon (ed.),Small Business Conditions and Finance, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
    3. Gao, Nan & Liang, Pinghan, 2019. "Home value misestimation and household behavior: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 168-180.
    4. Matthew Read & Chris Stewart & Gianni La Cava, 2014. "Mortgage-related Financial Difficulties: Evidence from Australian Micro-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-13, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Windsor, Callan & La Cava, Gianni & Hansen, James, 2015. "Home price beliefs: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 41-58.
    2. Benítez-Silva, Hugo & Eren, Selçuk & Heiland, Frank & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 2015. "How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-25.
    3. Alla Koblyakova & Larisa Fleishman & Orly Furman, 2022. "Accuracy of Households’ Dwelling Valuations, Housing Demand and Mortgage Decisions: Israeli Case," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 48-74, July.
    4. Thomas Y. Mathä & Alessandro Porpiglia & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2018. "Wealth differences across borders and the effect of real estate price dynamics: Evidence from two household surveys," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 26(1), pages 1-35, March.
    5. Tur-Sinai, Aviad & Fleishman, Larisa & Romanov, Dmitri, 2020. "The accuracy of self-reported dwelling valuation," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    6. Sheng Guo & William G. Hardin, 2017. "Financial and Housing Wealth, Expenditures and the Dividend to Ownership," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 58-96, January.
    7. Kadir Atalay & Stephen Whelan & Judith Yates, 2016. "House Prices, Wealth and Consumption: New Evidence from Australia and Canada," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(1), pages 69-91, March.
    8. Gao, Nan & Liang, Pinghan, 2019. "Home value misestimation and household behavior: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 168-180.
    9. M.I. Droes & W.H.J. Hassink, 2009. "Sale Price Expectations and Mortgage Commitment: Inaccuracy versus Price Setting Behaviour," Working Papers 09-24, Utrecht School of Economics.
    10. Banzhaf, H. Spencer & Farooque, Omar, 2013. "Interjurisdictional housing prices and spatial amenities: Which measures of housing prices reflect local public goods?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 635-648.
    11. Christian Gillitzer & Jin Cong Wang, 2015. "Housing Wealth Effects: Cross-sectional Evidence from New Vehicle Registrations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Bellet, Clement, 2017. "The paradox of the Joneses: superstar houses andmortgage frenzy in suburban America," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 69044, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Stijn Dreesen & Sven Damen, 2023. "The accuracy of homeowners’ valuations in the twenty-first century," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 513-566, July.
    14. Richard Finlay & Fiona Price, 2014. "The Rise in Household Saving," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 1-10, June.
    15. Finlay Richard & Price Fiona, 2015. "Household saving in Australia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 677-704, July.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/vbu6kd1s68o6r34k5bcm3iopv is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Joshua H. Gallin & Raven S. Molloy & Eric R. Nielsen & Paul A. Smith & Kamila Sommer, 2018. "Measuring Aggregate Housing Wealth : New Insights from an Automated Valuation Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2003. "Nominal loss aversion, housing equity constraints, and household mobility: evidence from the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 171-195, January.
    19. Carin van der Cruijsen & David-Jan Jansen & Maarten van Rooij, 2014. "The rose-colored glasses of homeowners," DNB Working Papers 421, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/vbu6kd1s68o6r34k5bcm3iopv is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Clément S. Bellet, 2017. "The paradox of the Joneses: superstar houses and mortgage frenzy in suburban America," CEP Discussion Papers dp1462, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    22. Stefano Corradin & Carles Vergara-Alert & Jose Fillat, 2019. "Household Choices with House Value Misperception," 2019 Meeting Papers 1247, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing; consumer behaviour; beliefs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2014-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paula Drew (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.