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Stock Market Efficiency Analysis using Long Spans of Data: A Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari

    (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France)

  • Goodness C. Aye

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract
This paper investigates the multifractality and efficiency of stock markets in eight developed (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland, UK and USA) and two emerging (India and South Africa) countries for which long span of data, covering over or nearly a century in each case, is available to avoid sample bias. We employ the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA). Our findings show that the stock markets are multifractal and mostly long-term persistent. Most markets are more efficient in the long-term than in the short-term. The findings are robust to small and large fluctuations. We draw the economic implications of these results.

Suggested Citation

  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Stock Market Efficiency Analysis using Long Spans of Data: A Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Approach," Working Papers 201824, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201824
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    6. José A. Roldán-Casas & Mª B. García-Moreno García, 2022. "A procedure for testing the hypothesis of weak efficiency in financial markets: a Monte Carlo simulation," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(5), pages 1289-1327, December.
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    9. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Diniz, Eduardo H. & Rasheed, Abdul A., 2021. "Bitcoin’s price efficiency and safe haven properties during the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
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    13. Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Suleman, Muhammed Tahir, 2024. "A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of Islamic and conventional financial markets efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    14. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Rasheed, Abdul A. & Sheng, Hsia Hua, 2023. "Price efficiency of the foreign exchange rates of BRICS countries: A comparative analysis," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    15. Deniz Erer & Elif Erer & Selim Güngör, 2023. "The aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency during crisis periods in Turkey: a comparative analysis with COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    16. Maciel, Leandro, 2021. "A new approach to portfolio management in the Brazilian equity market: Does assets efficiency level improve performance?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 38-56.
    17. Oliveira, Alexandre Silva de & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio & Albrecht, Peter, 2023. "Performance comparison of multifractal techniques and artificial neural networks in the construction of investment portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    18. Tao Yin & Yiming Wang, 2021. "Market Efficiency and Nonlinear Analysis of Soybean Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-10, January.
    19. Ghazani, Majid Mirzaee & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2019. "Testing the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the crude oil prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 60-68.
    20. Umar, Zaghum & Yousaf, Imran & Aharon, David Y., 2021. "The relationship between yield curve components and equity sectorial indices: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    21. Amairi, Haifa & Zantour, Ahlem & Saadi, Samir, 2021. "Information dissemination and price discovery," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    22. Shrestha, Keshab & Naysary, Babak & Philip, Sheena Sara Suresh, 2023. "Fintech market efficiency: A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    23. Suchetana Sadhukhan & Poulomi Sadhukhan, 2022. "Sector-wise analysis of Indian stock market: Long and short-term risk and stability analysis," Papers 2210.09619, arXiv.org.
    24. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2020. "Multifractal Analysis of Market Efficiency across Structural Breaks: Implications for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, October.
    25. Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming & Ning, Ye, 2019. "Comparative analysis of the multifractality and efficiency of exchange markets: Evidence from exchange rates dynamics of major world currencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Stock market; efficiency; short-term; long-term; multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis; Hurst exponent;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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