[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/96729.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Intertemporal Modeling of the Current Account

Author

Listed:
  • Ghassan, Hassan B.
  • Drissi, Ramzi
Abstract
This paper explores the long-run current account to GDP ratio in the present value model framework (PVMCA). Firstly, we use Euler equation at macro level to identify a general equation of the per capita current account to GDP. Secondly, through the overlapping generations model we determine the equation of per-capita CA using relevant variables, and discuss the empirical validity of the PVMCA via the quasi-elasticity of CA-to-GDP with respect to the per capita growth rate of output and consumption. We show that the elasticities of CA-to-GDP to per-capita output and ant to per-capita consumption growths interact in opposite paths, meaning that a higher growth rate of consumption tomorrow involves more saving yesterday and brings up a positive current account balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghassan, Hassan B. & Drissi, Ramzi, 2016. "Intertemporal Modeling of the Current Account," MPRA Paper 96729, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96729
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96729/1/MPRA_paper_96729.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Damiano Sandri, 2011. "Precautionary Savings and Global Imbalances in World General Equilibrium," IMF Working Papers 2011/122, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    3. Kano, Takashi, 2008. "A structural VAR approach to the intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 757-779, September.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense [‘Temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy: some evidence for the United Kingdom’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 598-638.
    6. Souki, Kaouthar & Enders, Walter, 2008. "Assessing the importance of global shocks versus country-specific shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1420-1429, December.
    7. Aizenman, Joshua & Sun, Yi, 2010. "Globalization and the sustainability of large current account imbalances: Size matters," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-44, March.
    8. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2013. "What drives China's current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 856-883.
    9. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    11. Mario Cerrato & Huseyin Kalyoncu & Naveed Hassan Naqvi & Christopher Tsoukis, 2015. "Current Accounts in the Long Run and the Intertemporal Approach: A Panel Data Investigation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 340-359, February.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    13. Karras, Georgios, 2009. "Demographic Change and the Current Account: Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14.
    14. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1982. "Aspects of the Current Account Behavior of OECD Economies," NBER Working Papers 0859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Drissi, Ramzi, 2015. "Long Run Current Account through theoretical Intertemporal Model," MPRA Paper 71997, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2015.
    2. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Al-Jefri, Essam H., 2015. "الحساب الجاري في المدى البعيد عبر نموذج داخلي الزمن [The Current Account in the Long Run through the Intertemporal Model]," MPRA Paper 66527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Al-Jefri, Essam H., 2016. "الحساب الجاري للاقتصاد السعودي عبر نموذج داخلي الزمن دلائل من منهجية نموذج التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي [The Current Account of Saudi Economy through Intertemporal Model: Evidence from SVAR]," MPRA Paper 80302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2017.
    4. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Al-Jefri, Essam H., 2015. "نموذج نظري إسلامي داخلي الزمن للحساب الجاري [Islamic Theoretical Intertemporal Model of the Current Account]," MPRA Paper 69963, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jan 2016.
    5. Bussière, Matthieu & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini E. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2021. "Current Account Dynamics And The Real Exchange Rate: Disentangling The Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 28-58, January.
    6. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Alhajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2022. "Bi-demographic and current account dynamics using SVAR model: evidence from Saudi Arabia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1327-1363, August.
    7. Chen, Qiuyu & Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2021. "Housing prices and trade surpluses in China: An inter-temporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Joshua Aizenman & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2011. "Global Imbalances: Is Germany the New China? A Skeptical View," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 387-400, July.
    9. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," Working Papers hal-04141182, HAL.
    10. Catão, Luis A.V. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2014. "External liabilities and crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-32.
    11. Nieminen, Mika, 2022. "Cross-country variation in patience, persistent current account imbalances and the external wealth of nations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Ruscher, Eric & Wolff, Guntram B., 2009. "External rebalancing is not just an exporters' story: real exchange rates, the non-tradable sector and the euro," MPRA Paper 19151, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2017. "Drivers of India’s current account deficits, with implications for ameliorating them," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 23-32.
    14. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3202-3245, November.
    15. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Working Papers hal-04141160, HAL.
    16. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Smith, Constance E., 2011. "External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1195-1213, October.
    18. Galstyan, Vahagn & Velic, Adnan, 2017. "Debt thresholds and real exchange rates: An emerging markets perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 452-470.
    19. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    20. Afonso, António & Huart, Florence & Tovar Jalles, João & Stanek, Piotr, 2022. "Twin deficits revisited: A role for fiscal institutions?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account; Consumption; Intertemporal Model; Per-capita GDP; Quasi-elasticity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96729. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.