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Markets with endogenous uncertainty: theory and policy

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  • Chichilnisky, Graciela
Abstract
Classic formulations of markets regard uncertainty as originating from acts of nature. I extend this to a formulation of markets which face risks induces by the economy itself, such as the environmental risks of atmospheric and climate change induced by CFC and CO2 emissions. I formulate and prove the existence of a general competitive equilibrium where the state space and the probabilities of events are endogenously determines as part of the equilibrium. Traders take optimal positions with respect to the uncertainty which their own actions induce. The equilibrium allocations are efficient in a restricted sense. I show that scientific uncertainty can be fully hedged. However uncertainty induced by the unknown level of output at an equilibrium cannot be hedged fully. I discuss applications for CAT Futures, recently introduced on the Chicago Board of Trade, and to international environmental strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1996. "Markets with endogenous uncertainty: theory and policy," MPRA Paper 8612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8612
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fudenberg, Drew & Holmstrom, Bengt & Milgrom, Paul, 1990. "Short-term contracts and long-term agency relationships," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-31, June.
    2. Cass, David & Chichilnisky, Graciela & Wu, Ho-Mou, 1996. "Individual Risk and Mutual Insurance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 333-341, March.
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    5. Robert B. Wilson, 2021. "Strategic Analysis of Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 555-561, March.
    6. Graciela Chichilnisky, 1997. "A Unified Perspective on Resource Allocation: Limited Arbitrage is Necessary and Sufficient for the Existence of a Competitive Equilibrium, the Core and Social Choice," International Economic Association Series, in: Kenneth J. Arrow & Amartya Sen & Kotaro Suzumura (ed.), Social Choice Re-examined, chapter 6, pages 121-174, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Chichilnisky, G. & Heal, G. & Streufert, P.A. & Swinkels, J.M., 1992. "Believing in Multiple Equilibria," Papers 92-32, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    8. Chichilnisky, G. & Heal, G., 1992. "Financial Markets for Unknown Risks," Papers 92-31, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
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    12. Graciela Chichilnisky & Geoffrey Heal, 1993. "Global Environmental Risks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 65-86, Fall.
    13. Chichilnisky Graciela & Heal Geoffrey M., 1993. "Competitive Equilibrium in Sobolev Spaces without Bounds on Short Sales," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 364-384, April.
    14. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1997. "Limited arbitrage is necessary and sufficient for the existence of an equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 470-479, November.
    15. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1994. "Social Diversity, Arbitrage, and Gains from Trade: A Unified Perspective on Resource Allocation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 427-434, May.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Los, Cornelis A., 1999. "Galton's Error and the under-representation of systematic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1793-1829, December.
    2. Ünveren, Burak & Durmaz, Tunç & Sunal, Seçkin, 2023. "AI revolution and coordination failure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1998. "The economics of global environmental risk," MPRA Paper 8812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Heal, Geoffrey, 1998. "Managing unknown risks: the future of global reinsurance," MPRA Paper 8820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in banking: a literature review," MPRA Paper 108017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Cornelis A. Los, 2004. "Measuring Financial Cash Flow and Term Structure Dynamics," Finance 0409046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Wu, Ho-Mou, 2006. "General equilibrium with endogenous uncertainty and default," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 499-524, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    endogenous uncertainty; markets general equilibrium; financial innovation; CAT futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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