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Dependence patterns across Gulf Arab stock markets: a copula approach

Author

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  • Syed Abul, Basher
  • Salem, Nechi
  • Hui, Zhu
Abstract
Underpinned by rising hydrocarbon revenues, the stock markets of the six GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries have demonstrated significant integration over the past decade. This paper studies the dependence patterns of the bivariate distribution of returns across seven GCC stock markets over the period 2004-2013 using copula models. The results of the marginal models indicate strong volatility persistence in all the seven equity markets. The results from the copula models indicate that the conditional dependence across all 21 pairs of equity markets’ returns is not strictly symmetric in that the lower tail dependence is significantly greater that the upper tail dependence. The stock markets of Abu Dhabi and Dubai appear as the primary source of asymmetric dependence across the different equity market pairs.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Abul, Basher & Salem, Nechi & Hui, Zhu, 2014. "Dependence patterns across Gulf Arab stock markets: a copula approach," MPRA Paper 56566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56566
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Manel Soury, 2015. "Energy Markets and CO2 Emissions: Analysis by Stochastic Copula Autoregressive Model," AMSE Working Papers 1520, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    4. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2016. "Impact of terrorist attacks on stock market volatility in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 184-202.
    5. Sanjay Sehgal & Piyush Pandey & Florent Deisting, 2018. "Time varying integration amongst the South Asian equity markets: An empirical study," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1452328-145, January.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2014. "Industry co-movement and cross-listing: Do home country factors matter?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 96-110.
    7. Hu, Haiqing & Chen, Di & Sui, Bo & Zhang, Lang & Wang, Yinyin, 2020. "Price volatility spillovers between supply chain and innovation of financial pledges in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 397-413.
    8. Syed Abul Basher & Alfred Haug & Perry Sadorsky, 2017. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries: A Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 1710, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2017.
    9. Sanjay Sehgal & Piyush Pandey & Florent Deisting, 2018. "Stock Market Integration Dynamics and its Determinants in the East Asian Economic Community Region," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(2), pages 389-425, June.
    10. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Political tensions, stock market dependence and volatility spillover: Evidence from the recent intra-GCC crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Addo, Emmanuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Re-examination of international bond market dependence: Evidence from a pair copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Mensah, Jones Odei & Alagidede, Paul, 2017. "How are Africa's emerging stock markets related to advanced markets? Evidence from copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-10.
    13. Sanjay Sehgal & Piyush Pandey & Florent Deisting, 2018. "Time varying integration amongst the South Asian equity markets: An empirical study," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1452328-145, January.
    14. Boako, Gideon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ibrahim, Muazu & Ji, Qiang, 2019. "Analysing dynamic dependence between gold and stock returns: Evidence using stochastic and full-range tail dependence copula models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    15. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2018. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-280.
    16. Ben Rejeb, Aymen & Arfaoui, Mongi, 2016. "Conventional and Islamic stock markets: what about financial performance?," MPRA Paper 73495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Youssef, Mouna & Mokni, Khaled, 2018. "On the effect of herding behavior on dependence structure between stock markets: Evidence from GCC countries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 52-63.
    18. T. P. Ghosh, 2016. "Oil Dependency of GCC Stock Markets: Co-integration of GCC Stock Market Indices and Oil Price," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(1), pages 188-188, December.
    19. Ben Rejeb, Aymen, 2016. "Volatility Spillover between Islamic and conventional stock markets: evidence from Quantile Regression analysis," MPRA Paper 73302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mensah, Jones Odei & Premaratne, Gamini, 2014. "Dependence patterns among Banking Sectors in Asia: A Copula Approach," MPRA Paper 60119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mokni, Khaled & Mansouri, Faysal, 2017. "Conditional dependence between international stock markets: A long memory GARCH-copula model approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 116-131.
    22. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Le, TN-Lan & Leyva-de la Hiz, Dante I., 2021. "Markov-switching dependence between artificial intelligence and carbon price: The role of policy uncertainty in the era of the 4th industrial revolution and the effect of COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copula; tail dependence; GCC stock markets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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