[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/53743.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real wages in the business cycle: an unresolved conflict between theory and facts in mainstream macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • Stirati, Antonella
Abstract
The focus of this paper is the recurring tension between mainstream macroeconomics and observed facts in connection with the difficult task of providing explanations of the business cycle consistent both with the traditional theory of income distribution and with the empirical evidence concerning the co-movements of real wages and employment over the cycle. The attempts to reconcile facts and theory have led to the continuous introduction of specific and arguably ad hoc hypotheses, in contrast with the search for greater theoretical rigour claimed by the various streams of macroeconomic modelling subsequent to the neo-classical synthesis. In addition, the specific assumptions introduced in the models, or their implications, are in turn often contradicted or, at best, not confirmed by subsequent empirical research. It is suggested in the conclusions that the difficulty of keeping together in a simple and consistent framework theory and facts reflects the flawed theoretical foundations of mainstream theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Stirati, Antonella, 2014. "Real wages in the business cycle: an unresolved conflict between theory and facts in mainstream macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 53743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53743
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53743/1/MPRA_paper_53743.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chirinko, Robert S, 1993. "Business Fixed Investment Spending: Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1875-1911, December.
    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1970. "Capacity, Overtime, and Empirical Production Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 23-27, May.
    3. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 523-580, June.
    4. Robert S. Chirinko, 1992. "Business Fixed Investment Spending: A Critical survey of Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications," Working Papers 9213, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
    5. Christopher J. Nekarda & Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Industry Evidence on the Effects of Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 36-59, January.
    6. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    7. Laurence Ball & David Romer, 1990. "Real Rigidities and the Non-Neutrality of Money," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(2), pages 183-203.
    8. Katharine G. Abraham & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1215-1264, September.
    9. Haskel, Jonathan & Martin, Christopher & Small, Ian, 1995. "Price, Marginal Cost and the Business Cycle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 25-41, February.
    10. Lindbeck, Assar, 1998. "New Keynesianism and Aggregate Economic Activity," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 167-180, January.
    11. Stirati, Antonella, 1992. "Unemployment, Institutions and the Living Standard in the Classical Theory of Wages," Contributions to Political Economy, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 11(0), pages 41-66.
    12. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1991. "Markups and the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 63-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Alan S. Blinder, 1994. "On Sticky Prices: Academic Theories Meet the Real World," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 117-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Pierangelo Garegnani, 2024. "Heterogeneous Capital, the Production Function and the Theory of Distribution," Springer Studies in the History of Economic Thought, in: Roberto Ciccone (ed.), Capital Theory, the Surplus Approach, and Effective Demand, pages 147-193, Springer.
    15. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    16. Fabio Petri, 2004. "General Equilibrium, Capital and Macroeconomics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3438.
    17. Macallan, Clare & Millard, Stephen & Parker, Miles, 2008. "The cyclicality of mark-ups and profit margins for the United Kingdom: some new evidence," Bank of England working papers 351, Bank of England.
    18. Fabio Petri, 2013. "The Inevitable Dependence of Investment on Expected Demand: Implications for Neoclassical Macroeconomics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Enrico Sergio Levrero & Antonella Palumbo & Antonella Stirati (ed.), Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory: Volume Two, chapter 2, pages 44-67, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Domowitz, Ian & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1988. "Market Structure and Cyclical Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 55-66, February.
    20. Osberg, Lars & Apostle, Richard & Clairmont, Don, 1986. "The Incidence and Duration of Individual Unemployment: Supply Side o r Demand Side?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 10(1), pages 13-33, March.
    21. Antonella Stirati, 2010. "Interpretations of the Classic: The Theory of Wages," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0116, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    22. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 825-844.
    23. Harry J. Holzer, 1987. "Job Search by Employed and Unemployed Youth," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 40(4), pages 601-611, July.
    24. Antonella Palumbo, 2013. "Potential Output and Demand-Led Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Enrico Sergio Levrero & Antonella Palumbo & Antonella Stirati (ed.), Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory: Volume Two, chapter 4, pages 92-119, Palgrave Macmillan.
    25. Rosen, Sherwin, 1985. "Implicit Contracts: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 1144-1175, September.
    26. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    27. Kahn, Lawrence M & Low, Stuart A, 1982. "The Relative Effects of Employed and Unemployed Job Search," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 234-241, May.
    28. P. Garegnani, 1970. "A Reply," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(3), pages 439-439.
    29. Ackley, Gardner, 1983. "Commodities and Capital: Prices and Quantities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 1-16, March.
    30. Brandolini, Andrea, 1995. "In Search of a Stylised Fact: Do Real Wages Exhibit a Consistent Pattern of Cyclical Variability?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 103-163, June.
    31. Alessandro Roncaglia & Mario Tonveronachi, 1985. "Pre-Keynesian roots of the neoclassical synthesis," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 10(1), pages 51-65.
    32. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
    33. Eckhard Hein & Arne Heise & Achim Truger (ed.), 2006. "Wages, Employment, Distribution and Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-37178-1, October.
    34. Mark Blaug, 2009. "The Trade-Off between Rigor and Relevance: Sraffian Economics as a Case in Point," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 219-247, Summer.
    35. John C. Ham & Kevin T. Reilly, 2002. "Testing Intertemporal Substitution, Implicit Contracts, and Hours Restriction Models of the Labor Market Using Micro Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 905-927, September.
    36. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. John T. Dunlop, 1998. "Real and Money Wage Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 223-234, Spring.
    38. Luigi L. Pasinetti, 1966. "Paradoxes in Capital Theory: A Symposium: Changes in the Rate of Profit and Switches of Techniques," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(4), pages 503-517.
    39. Ball, Laurence, 1990. "Intertemporal Substitution and Constraints on Labor Supply: Evidence from Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(4), pages 706-724, October.
    40. Pierangelo Garegnani, 2007. "Professor Samuelson on Sraffa and the classical economists," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 181-242.
    41. Blinder, Alan S, 1997. "Is There a Core of Practical Macroeconomics That We Should All Believe?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 240-243, May.
    42. Pierangelo Garegnani, 2013. "On the Present State of the Capital Controversy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Enrico Sergio Levrero & Antonella Palumbo & Antonella Stirati (ed.), Sraffa and the Reconstruction of Economic Theory: Volume One, chapter 1, pages 15-37, Palgrave Macmillan.
    43. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-754, Sept./Oct.
    44. David Romer, 1993. "The New Keynesian Synthesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 5-22, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonella Stirati, 2016. "Real wages in the business cycle and the theory of income distribution: an unresolved conflict between theory and facts in mainstream macroeconomics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(2), pages 639-661.
    2. Nils Gottfries & Glenn Mickelsson & Karolina Stadin, 2021. "Deep Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 8873, CESifo.
    3. Jesus Felipe & Franklin M. Fisher, 2003. "Aggregation in Production Functions: What Applied Economists should Know," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 208-262, May.
    4. Hart, Robert A. & Malley, James R., 2000. "Marginal cost and price over the business cycle: comparative evidence from Japan and the United States," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 547-569, September.
    5. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 687-710, October.
    6. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2001. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 225-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Levy, Daniel & Young, Andrew T., 2021. "Promise, Trust and Betrayal: Costs of Breaching an Implicit Contract," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue forthcomi.
    8. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    9. Nicoletta Batini & Brian Jackson & Stephen Nickell, 2002. "The Pricing Behaviour of UK Firms," Discussion Papers 09, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    10. Barseghyan, Levon & DiCecio, Riccardo, 2016. "Externalities, endogenous productivity, and poverty traps," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 112-126.
    11. Bils, Mark & Chang, Yongsung, 2000. "Understanding how price responds to costs and production," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 33-77, June.
    12. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Ohkusa, Yasushi & Ariga, Kenn, 1999. "Estimating the mark-up over marginal cost: a panel analysis of Japanese firms 1971-1994," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(8), pages 1077-1111, November.
    13. Susanto Basu, 1998. "Technology and business cycles; how well do standard models explain the facts?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 207-269.
    14. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2013. "Inflation Targeting in a St. Louis Model of the 21st Century," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 543-574.
    15. Basu, S. & House, C.L., 2016. "Allocative and Remitted Wages," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 297-354, Elsevier.
    16. Rotemberg, Julio J. & Woodford, Michael, 1999. "The cyclical behavior of prices and costs," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1051-1135, Elsevier.
    17. Salman Ahmad & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2015. "Analysing the Price Cost Markup and Its Behaviour over the Business Cycles in Case of Manufacturing Industries of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2015:117, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    18. Daniele Girardi, 2017. "Old and new formulations of the neoclassical theory of aggregate investment : a critical review," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2017-03, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    19. Jesus Felipe & John S.L. McCombie, 2013. "The Aggregate Production Function and the Measurement of Technical Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1975.
    20. Anwar Shaikh, 2012. "Rethinking Microeconomics: A Proposed Reconstruction," Working Papers 1206, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real wages in the business cycle; macroeconomic models;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53743. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.