[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/4133.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Co-movements in international dollar price levels

Author

Listed:
  • Shelley, Gary
  • Wallace, Frederick
Abstract
This paper studies the relation between movements in the U.S. price level and the dollar price levels of nineteen other countries. Using the band pass filter developed by Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003), we examine correlations between dollar prices when decomposed into their high, medium, and low frequency cycles. The low frequency cycle in the U.S. price series is highly correlated with low frequency cycles in dollar price levels of the majority of countries in our sample. The high correlation between low frequency cycles persists over a variety of historical sub-periods, including the eras of fixed and flexible nominal exchange rates. This result, suggesting the existence of a common long-run price cycle, is consistent with long-run purchasing power parity. In contrast, both high and medium frequency cycles are more highly correlated prior to the Great Depression. This result is consistent with studies finding greater stability of real exchange rates during the era of the gold standard. Also, it appears that the increased volatility of U.S. real exchange rates after the 1973 move to flexible exchange rates was largely due to declines in the co-movement of short-run dollar price cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Shelley, Gary & Wallace, Frederick, 2007. "Co-movements in international dollar price levels," MPRA Paper 4133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4133/1/MPRA_paper_4133.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wallace, Frederick H. & Shelley, Gary L., 2006. "An alternative test of purchasing power parity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 177-183, August.
    2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, January.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    5. Neumann, Manfred, 1995. "Real effects of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 417-426, June.
    6. Fernandez Valdovinos, Carlos G., 2003. "Inflation and economic growth in the long run," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 167-173, August.
    7. Alan M. Taylor & Natalia Chernyshoff & David Jacks, 2005. "Stuck on Gold:Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard, 1870?1939," Working Papers 237, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    8. Gonzaga, Gustavo M. & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1997. "Equilibrium real exchange rate, volatility, and stabilization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 77-100, October.
    9. Kool, C. J. M. & Koedijk, K. G., 1997. "Real exchange rates between the wars," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 211-232, April.
    10. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1986. "Real business cycles, real exchange rates, and actual policies," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-10, January.
    11. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Rigobon, Roberto, 2006. "The long-run volatility puzzle of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-124, February.
    12. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:2:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Natalia Chernyshoff & David S. Jacks & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "Stuck on Gold: Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 11795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Grilli, Vittorio & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1991. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the real exchange rate : Evidence from the United States and Great Britain, 1885-1986," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 191-212, April.
    16. Arize, Augustine C., 1998. "The long-run relationship between import flows and real exchange-rate volatility: The experience of eight European economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 417-435.
    17. Lothian, James R., 1998. "Some new stylized facts of floating exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 29-39, February.
    18. Lee, Kiseok & Ni, Shawn, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Output Effects of Temporary and Persistent Government Purchases," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 717-730, October.
    19. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
    20. Alba, Joseph D. & Papell, David H., 2007. "Purchasing power parity and country characteristics: Evidence from panel data tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 240-251, May.
    21. Robertson, Raymond, 2004. "Relative prices and wage inequality: evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 387-409, December.
    22. Stefan Norrbin & Onsurang Pipatchaipoom, 2007. "Is the real dollar rate highly volatile?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grossmann, Axel & Orlov, Alexei G., 2022. "Exchange rate misalignments, capital flows and volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    3. Weber, Christoph S., 2019. "The effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 165-181.
    4. James R. Lothian & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod‐Balassa‐Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    5. Gawon Yoon, 2009. "Are real exchange rates more likely to be stationary during the fixed nominal exchange rate regimes?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 17-22.
    6. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    7. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    8. William D. Craighead, 2010. "Across Time And Regimes: 212 Years Of The Us‐Uk Real Exchange Rate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 951-964, October.
    9. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2005. "A New Analysis Of The Determinants Of The Real Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-16, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
    11. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan Bashir, 2016. "The role of structural breaks, nonlinearity and asymmetric adjustments in African bilateral real exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 144-159.
    12. Curran, Michael & Velic, Adnan, 2019. "Real exchange rate persistence and country characteristics: A global analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 35-56.
    13. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
    14. Frederick Wallace, 2011. "Purchasing power parity in Mexico: a historical note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 349-352.
    15. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    16. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April.
    17. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sager, Michael, 2009. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rate: a reappraisal," Working Paper Series 1046, European Central Bank.
    18. Grossmann, Axel & Love, Inessa & Orlov, Alexei G., 2014. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: A panel VAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-27.
    19. Lee, Hwa-Taek & Yoon, Gawon, 2007. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Sometimes? Regime Switching in Real Exchange Rates," Economics Working Papers 2007-24, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    20. repec:lan:wpaper:2400 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp746 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. James R. Lothian & Cornelia H. McCarthy, 2003. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior Under Floating and Fixed Regimes," International Finance 0311006, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Purchasing power parity; real exchange rate volatility; band-pass filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.