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The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows

Author

Listed:
  • Jaume Rosselló Nadal

    (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra))

  • Antoni Riera Font

    (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra))

  • Vivian Cardenas

    (PhD student of the Program of Tourism and Environmental Economics)

Abstract
Climate can be understood both as a resource and a motivation for tourism. This study focuses on the second issue trying to establish the sensitivity to weather anomalies of the outbound flows from United Kingdom, the third biggest international tourist spender country. Using transfer function models it is possible to analyze the significance of the short-term weather conditions in the determination of outbound British flows and simulate the effects of different climate change scenarios. Results show how mean temperature, heat waves, air frost and sunshine days are the weather variables that can be significantly related to the dynamics of the outbound British flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaume Rosselló Nadal & Antoni Riera Font & Vivian Cardenas, 2008. "The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2008/3, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
    • Handle: RePEc:pdm:wpaper:2008/3
    as

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    File URL: http://www.cre.uib.es/internet/cre.nsf/pernomcurt/DT_adjunt/$FILE/dt2008_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate On Holiday Destination Choice," Working Papers FNU-55, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Oct 2004.
    2. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
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    4. John Trevor Coshall, 2005. "A Selection Strategy for Modelling UK Tourism Flows by Air to European Destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 141-158, June.
    5. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    6. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
    7. L. Turner & N. Kulendran & H. Fernando, 1997. "The Use of Composite National Indicators for Tourism Forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 309-317, December.
    8. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Figini & Simona Cicognani & Lorenzo Zirulia, 2023. "Booking in the Rain. Testing the Impact of Public Information on Prices," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(3), pages 1329-1364, November.
    2. Jonathan Aylen & Kevin Albertson & Gina Cavan, 2014. "The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 183-197, November.
    3. Liu, Yuan-Yuan & Tseng, Fang-Mei & Tseng, Yi-Heng, 2018. "Big Data analytics for forecasting tourism destination arrivals with the applied Vector Autoregression model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 123-134.
    4. Martin Falk, 2014. "Weather and Tourism Demand in the Summer Months across Austrian provinces," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1149, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Jeuring, Jelmer Hendrik Gerard, 2017. "Weather perceptions, holiday satisfaction and perceived attractiveness of domestic vacationing in The Netherlands," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 70-81.
    6. Jeuring, Jelmer & Becken, Susanne, 2013. "Tourists and severe weather – An exploration of the role of ‘Locus of Responsibility’ in protective behaviour decisions," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 193-202.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism; weather anomalies; climate change; transfer function modeling; United Kingdom.;
    All these keywords.

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