[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pab/wpaper/16.05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Road accidents and business cycles in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Rodríguez-López

    (U. Pablo de Olavide)

  • Gustavo A. Marrero

    (U. La Laguna and CAERP)

  • Rosa Marina González-Marrero

    (U. La Laguna)

  • Teresa Leal-Linares

    (Universidad de Huelva)

Abstract
As of 2006 Spanish authorities implemented a Penalty Point System (PPS), consisting in a credit system for licensed drivers conditional upon the fulfillment of traffic rules. The PPS has been blessed as responsible for the decline of road fatalities in Spain. In this paper, we argue that part of the decline was due to the occurrence of two confluent facts that affect traffic density: (1st) the Great recession starting in 2008, and (2nd) an increase in fuel prices during the spring of 2008, implying a rise in the operating costs of motor vehicles. Using cointegration techniques, the GDP growth rate and the fuel price appear to be statistically significant with accidents. Importantly, PPS is found to be significant in reducing accidents with mortal victims. In view of these results, we conclude that road accidents in Spain are very sensible to the business cycle, and that the PPS influenced the quality (fatality) rather than the quantity of accidents in Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Rodríguez-López & Gustavo A. Marrero & Rosa Marina González-Marrero & Teresa Leal-Linares, 2016. "Road accidents and business cycles in Spain," Working Papers 16.05, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:16.05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.upo.es/serv/bib/wps/econ1605.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Blundell & Joel L. Horowitz & Matthias Parey, 2012. "Measuring the price responsiveness of gasoline demand: Economic shape restrictions and nonparametric demand estimation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 3(1), pages 29-51, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xibing Li & Jiao Liu & Jian Zhou & Xiling Liu & Lei Zhou & Wei Wei, 2020. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Road Traffic Safety: A Study Based on the ARDL-ECM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Rebollo-Sanz, Yolanda & Rodríguez-López, Jesús & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2021. "Penalty-point system, deterrence and road safety: A quasi-experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 408-433.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Blundell & Joel Horowitz & Matthias Parey, 2022. "Estimation of a Heterogeneous Demand Function with Berkson Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(5), pages 877-889, December.
    2. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen, 2015. "Optimal sup-norm rates, adaptivity and inference in nonparametric instrumental variables estimation," CeMMAP working papers 32/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Hoderlein, Stefan & Su, Liangjun & White, Halbert & Yang, Thomas Tao, 2016. "Testing for monotonicity in unobservables under unconfoundedness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 183-202.
    4. Kim, Kun Ho & Chao, Shih-Kang & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2020. "Simultaneous Inference of the Partially Linear Model with a Multivariate Unknown Function," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2020-008, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    5. Richard H. Spady & Sami Stouli, 2018. "Simultaneous Mean-Variance Regression," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 18/697, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    6. de Ree, Joppe & Alessie, Rob & Pradhan, Menno, 2013. "The price and utility dependence of equivalence scales: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 272-281.
    7. Horowitz, Joel L. & Lee, Sokbae, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation and inference under shape restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 108-126.
    8. Victor Chernozhukov & Vira Semenova, 2018. "Simultaneous inference for Best Linear Predictor of the Conditional Average Treatment Effect and other structural functions," CeMMAP working papers CWP40/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Joel L. Horowitz, 2018. "Non-Asymptotic Inference in Instrumental Variables Estimation," Papers 1809.03600, arXiv.org.
    10. Edvard Bakhitov, 2020. "Frequentist Shrinkage under Inequality Constraints," Papers 2001.10586, arXiv.org.
    11. Cherchye, Laurens & Demuynck, Thomas & Rock, Bram De, 2019. "Bounding counterfactual demand with unobserved heterogeneity and endogenous expenditures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 483-506.
    12. Victor Chernozhukov & Whitney K. Newey & Victor Quintas-Martinez & Vasilis Syrgkanis, 2021. "RieszNet and ForestRiesz: Automatic Debiased Machine Learning with Neural Nets and Random Forests," Papers 2110.03031, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    13. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy Christensen, 2013. "Optimal Sup-norm Rates, Adaptivity and Inference in Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1923R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2015.
    14. Denis Chetverikov & Dongwoo Kim & Daniel Wilhelm, 2018. "Nonparametric instrumental-variable estimation," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(4), pages 937-950, December.
    15. Daniel Wilhelm, 2018. "Testing for the presence of measurement error," CeMMAP working papers CWP45/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Belloni, Alexandre & Chernozhukov, Victor & Chetverikov, Denis & Fernández-Val, Iván, 2019. "Conditional quantile processes based on series or many regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 4-29.
    17. Debopam Bhattacharya, 2015. "Nonparametric Welfare Analysis for Discrete Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 617-649, March.
    18. Rahul Deb & Yuichi Kitamura & John Quah & Joerg Stoye, 2017. "Revealed Price Preference: Theory and Stochastic Testing," Working Papers tecipa-582, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    19. Gillingham, Kenneth & Munk-Nielsen, Anders, 2019. "A tale of two tails: Commuting and the fuel price response in driving," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 27-40.
    20. Malik, Afia, 2018. "Fuel Demand in Pakistan's TRansport Sector," MPRA Paper 103455, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Road accidents; Penalty Point System; Business cycle; Cointegration; Autoregressive Distributed Lags Models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R49 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Other
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:16.05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publicación Digital - UPO (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupoes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.