[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/swe/wpaper/2009-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Variable Capacity Utilization, Ambient Temperature Shocks and Generation Asset Valuation

Author

Listed:
  • Chung-Li

    (Australian School of Business, The University of New South Wales)

  • Wei Zhu

    (First Choice Power Inc.)

  • Alexandre Dmitriev

    (School of Economics, The University of New South Wales)

Abstract
This paper discusses generation asset valuation in a framework where capital utilization decisions are endogenous. We use real options approach for valuation of natural gas fuelled turbines. Capital utilization choices that we explore include turning on/off the unit, operating the unit at increased firing temperatures (overfiring), and conducting preventive maintenance. Overfiring provides capacity enhancement which comes at the expense of reduced maintenance interval and increased costs of part replacement. We consider the costs and benefits of overfiring in attempt to maximize the asset value by optimally exercising the overfire option. In addition to stochastic processes governing prices, we incorporate an exogenous productivity shock: ambient temperature. We consider how variation in ambient temperature affects the asset value through its effect on gas turbine’s productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung-Li & Wei Zhu & Alexandre Dmitriev, 2009. "Variable Capacity Utilization, Ambient Temperature Shocks and Generation Asset Valuation," Discussion Papers 2009-14, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    • Handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2009-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/RePEc/papers/2009-14.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Baxter, Marianne & Farr, Dorsey D., 2005. "Variable capital utilization and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 335-347, March.
    3. Davis, Graham A. & Owens, Brandon, 2003. "Optimizing the level of renewable electric R&D expenditures using real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(15), pages 1589-1608, December.
    4. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
    5. In, Francis & Yoon, Jai Hyung, 2007. "Determination of asset prices with an investment-specific technology model: Implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2637-2658, August.
    6. Lee E. Ohanian, 2002. "Why did productivity fall so much during the Great Depression?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 26(Spr).
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    8. Ross Baldick & Sergey Kolos & Stathis Tompaidis, 2006. "Interruptible Electricity Contracts from an Electricity Retailer's Point of View: Valuation and Optimal Interruption," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 54(4), pages 627-642, August.
    9. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    10. Chung-Li Tseng & Kyle Y. Lin, 2007. "A Framework Using Two-Factor Price Lattices for Generation Asset Valuation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(2), pages 234-251, April.
    11. Chung-Li Tseng & Graydon Barz, 2002. "Short-Term Generation Asset Valuation: A Real Options Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(2), pages 297-310, April.
    12. Susanto Basu & Miles S. Kimball, 1997. "Cyclical Productivity with Unobserved Input Variation," NBER Working Papers 5915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Malliaris, A.G. & Kyrtsou, C., 2009. "Editorial introduction of the special issue: "Energy sector pricing and macroeconomic dynamics"," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 825-826, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seiji Harikae & James S. Dyer & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "Valuing Real Options in the Volatile Real World," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 171-189, January.
    2. Munechika Katayama, 2013. "Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 977-1016, September.
    3. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Energy Business Cycles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    4. Zhang, Mingming & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng, 2014. "A real option model for renewable energy policy evaluation with application to solar PV power generation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 944-955.
    5. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    6. Lan, Hong & Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2013. "Decomposing risk in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-022, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Marnay, Chris & Wiser, Ryan H., 2007. "Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 265-279, January.
    8. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    9. Mo, Jian-Lei & Schleich, Joachim & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Delaying the introduction of emissions trading systems—Implications for power plant investment and operation from a multi-stage decision model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 255-264.
    10. Diego Romero-Avila & DIEGO ROMERO-ÁVILA & ILASKI BARAÑANO, 2012. "Long-Term Growth and Persistence with Endogenous Depreciation: Theory and Evidence," EcoMod2012 3757, EcoMod.
    11. Kim, Daisoon, 2021. "Economies of scale and international business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai, 2012. "Increasing returns and unsynchronized wage adjustment in sunspot models of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 284-309.
    13. Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael & Schnabl, Alexander, 2005. "Real options and the value of generation capacity in the German electricity market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 297-310.
    14. Lei Zhu & ZhongXiang Zhang & Ying Fan, 2011. "An evaluation of overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty using a real options based simulation model," Economics Study Area Working Papers 121, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    15. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    16. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Chen, H.T., 2017. "Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 873-883.
    17. Gantert, Konstantin, 2022. "The impact of active aggregate demand on utilisation-adjusted TFP," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    18. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2017. "Understanding the cross-country effects of U.S. technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 143-164.
    19. Juessen, Falko & Linnemann, Ludger, 2012. "Markups and fiscal transmission in a panel of OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 674-686.
    20. Nemat Safarov & Colin Atkinson, 2017. "Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants Valuation And Optimization Under Lévy Copulas And Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(01), pages 1-38, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity generation asset valuation; overfire option; price uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:swe:wpaper:2009-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hongyi Li (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/senswau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.