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The Analysis of Catalysis: IMF Programs and Private Capital Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Graham Bird

    (University of Surrey)

  • Dane Rowlands

    (Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University)

Abstract
This paper examines the claim that the IMF catalyzes other capital flows. We identify a series of propositions based on recent theoretical work, use a treatment effects model to deal with selection bias, and examine whether the IMF catalyzes both aggregate private financial flows and important subgroups for middle-income countries. The results presented here support many of the propositions, but also indicate that the sign and significance of catalysis varies according to the type of flow and the circumstances of the country. The finding that catalysis is complex and nuanced has important implications for policy that are briefly discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2007. "The Analysis of Catalysis: IMF Programs and Private Capital Flows," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0107, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0107
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2007/DP01-07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521016957, September.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    3. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2004. "The Catalytic Effect of Lending by the International Financial Institutions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: International Finance and the Developing Economies, chapter 12, pages 204-226, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Mr. Diego Saravia & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2003. "Catalyzing Capital Flows: Do IMF-Supported Programs Work As Commitment Devices?," IMF Working Papers 2003/100, International Monetary Fund.
    5. J. Zettelmeyer, 2000. "Can Official Crisis Lending be Counterproductive in the Short Run?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 13-29, February.
    6. Dane Rowlands, 2001. "The Response of Other Lenders to the IMF," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 531-546, August.
    7. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:3:p:531-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2001. "IMF lending: how is it affected by economic, political and institutional factors?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 243-270.
    9. Olivier Jeanne & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The International Lender of Last Resort. How Large Is Large Enough?," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 89-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Curzio Giannini & Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 2002. "Bedfellows, Hostages, or Perfect Strangers? Global Capital Markets and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Crisis Lending," IMF Working Papers 2002/193, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Bird, Graham & Hussain, Mumtaz & Joyce, Joseph P., 2004. "Many happy returns? Recidivism and the IMF," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 231-251, March.
    12. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2006. "Catalytic finance: When does it work?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 161-177, September.
    13. Michael D. Bordo & Mr. Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes, 2004. "Keeping Capital Flowing: The Role of the IMF," IMF Working Papers 2004/197, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "IMF programs: Who is chosen and what are the effects?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1245-1269, October.
    15. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Guimaraes, Bernardo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2006. "International lending of last resort and moral hazard: A model of IMF's catalytic finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 441-471, April.
    16. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Nouriel Roubini, 2001. "The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises," NBER Working Papers 8634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Michael D. Bordo & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes, 2004. "Keeping Capital Flowing: The Role of the IMF," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 421-450, December.
    18. Nathan M. Jensen, 2004. "Crisis, Conditions, and Capital," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 194-210, April.
    19. Adrian Penalver, 2004. "How can the IMF catalyse private capital flows? A model," Bank of England working papers 215, Bank of England.
    20. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2002. "Do IMF Programmes Have a Catalytic Effect on Other International Capital Flows?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 229-249.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2007. "Should it be curtains for some of the IMF’s lending windows?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 281-299, September.
    2. Mr. Ali J Al-Sadiq, 2015. "The Impact of IMF-Supported Programs on FDI in Low-income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/157, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Alessandro Schiavone & Claudia Maurini, 2023. "The catalytic role of IMF programs to Low Income Countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 782, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Maria S. Basílio, 2014. "The Determinants of Multilateral Development Banks’ Participation in Infrastructure Projects," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 6(2), pages 83-110, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IMF; catalysis; international capital flows; private capital flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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