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The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9

Author

Listed:
  • Gaffney, Edward
  • McCann, Fergal
Abstract
Banks must make forward-looking provisions for loan losses under new international accounting standards introduced in 2018. In Europe, banks will assign performing exposures to a new “Stage 2” category with a higher provisioning penalty, if they have experienced significant increase in credit risk (SICR). We use a loan-level credit risk model and Irish residential mortgage panel data to assign performing loans into the appropriate stage. Using this technique, we characterise approximately 30 per cent of the performing Irish mortgage portfolio at end-2015 as Stage 2.We then calculate backward-looking, static estimations of Stage 2 mortgages between 2008 and 2015. This exercise suggests that loan stage assignment can be highly pro-cyclical. The share of Stage 2 among performing mortgages rises during the economic downturn to peak in 2013, after which large transitions are assigned from Stage 2 into lower-risk performing loans, as the economy improves. JEL Classification: G21

Suggested Citation

  • Gaffney, Edward & McCann, Fergal, 2019. "The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9," ESRB Working Paper Series 92, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201992
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Henri Fraisse & Mathias Lé & David Thesmar, 2020. "The Real Effects of Bank Capital Requirements," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 5-23, January.
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    8. Gómez, Esteban & Murcia, Andrés & Lizarazo, Angélica & Mendoza, Juan Carlos, 2020. "Evaluating the impact of macroprudential policies on credit growth in Colombia," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    9. Esteban Gómez & Angélica Lizarazo & Juan Carlos Mendoza & Andrés Murcia, 2017. "Evaluating the Impact of Macroprudential Policies in Colombia's Credit Growth," Borradores de Economia 980, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Krüger, Steffen & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "The impact of loan loss provisioning on bank capital requirements," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 114-129.
    11. Joyce, John & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Model-based estimates of the resilience of mortgages at origination," Economic Letters 09/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    12. Małgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipień & Iwona Kowalska & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2017. "What Drives Heterogeneity of Cyclicality of Loan-Loss Provisions in the EU?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-96, February.
    13. Leonardo Gambacorta & Andrés Murcia, 2019. "The impact of macroprudential policies and their interaction with monetary policy: an empirical analysis using credit registry data," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Petr Polak & Jiri Panos, 2019. "The Impact of Expectations on IFRS 9 Loan Loss Provisions," Research and Policy Notes 2019/03, Czech National Bank.
    2. Morais, Bernardo & Ormazabal, Gaizka & Peydro, J.L. & Roa, Monica & Sarmiento Paipilla, Miguel, 2020. "Forward Looking Loan Provisions : Credit Supply and Risk-Taking," Other publications TiSEM fe99a48f-f94a-41d8-bf3f-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Salazar, Yadira & Merello, Paloma & Zorio-Grima, Ana, 2023. "IFRS 9, banking risk and COVID-19: Evidence from Europe," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Emil Ślązak & Magdalena Skwarzec, 2022. "The effects of IFRS 9 valuation model on cost of risk in commercial banks – the impact of COVID-19," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 53(1), pages 47-78.
    5. Morell, Joe & Rice, Jonathan & Shaw, Frances, 2022. "A Framework for Macroprudential Stress Testing," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Chafik, Omar & Mikou, Mohammed & Slaoui, Yassine & Motl, Tomas, 2022. "A DSGE model for macroprudential policy in Morocco," Document de travail 2022-3, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    7. Germán López‐Espinosa & Gaizka Ormazabal & Yuki Sakasai, 2021. "Switching from Incurred to Expected Loan Loss Provisioning: Early Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 757-804, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; loan provisioning; mortgage defaults; stress testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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