[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/siu/wpaper/07-2005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sustainable External Debt Levels: Estimates for Selected Asian Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto S. Mariano

    (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University)

  • Delano Villanueva

    (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University)

Abstract
High ratios of external debt to GDP in selected Asian countries have contributed to the initiation, propagation, and severity of the financial and economic crises in recent years, reflecting runaway fiscal deficits and excessive foreign borrowing by the private sector. Applying the formal framework proposed by Villanueva (2003) to a selected group of Asian countries, the research estimates the external debt thresholds beyond which further debt accumulation will have negative effects on growth and will become unsustainable. The framework is an extension of the standard neoclassical growth model that incorporates global capital markets. ‘Sustainability’ is measured in terms of the steady-state ratio of the stock of external debt to GDP, as functions of real world interest rates, risk spreads and their responsiveness to external debt burdens and market perceptions of country risk, marginal propensities to save out of national disposable income and foreign borrowing, rates of technical change, and parameters of the production function. The major policy implications are that in the long run, fiscal consolidation and the promotion of private saving are critical, and that reliance on foreign saving in a globalized financial world has limits, particularly when the risk spreads are positively correlated with rising external debt levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto S. Mariano & Delano Villanueva, 2005. "Sustainable External Debt Levels: Estimates for Selected Asian Countries," Working Papers 07-2005, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:07-2005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mercury.smu.edu.sg/rsrchpubupload/4934/RSM_Dan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Comparative Advantage and Long-run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 796-815, September.
    5. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "International Trade with Endogenous Technological Change," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 2, pages 33-70, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    7. Delano Villanueva, 1994. "Openness, Human Development, and Fiscal Policies: Effects on Economic Growth and Speed of Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(1), pages 1-29, March.
    8. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. repec:bla:ecorec:v:78:y:2002:i:243:p:375-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ken-ichi Inada, 1963. "On a Two-Sector Model of Economic Growth: Comments and a Generalization," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 30(2), pages 119-127.
    11. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Delano S Villanueva & Roberto S Mariano & Diwa C Guinigundo & Abbas Mirakhor, 2023. "External Debt, Adjustment, and Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Growth Theory and Practice, chapter 9, pages 222-249, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Delano S Villanueva & Roberto S Mariano & Diwa C Guinigundo & Abbas Mirakhor, 2023. "External Debt, Adjustment, and Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Growth Theory and Practice, chapter 9, pages 222-249, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Aykut Kibritçioglu, 2002. "On the Smithian origins of "new" trade and growth theories," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
    4. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J. & Smulders, J.A., 1991. "Reconstructing growth theory : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 19355c51-17eb-4d5d-aa66-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Frédéric Lordon, 1991. "Théorie de la croissance : quelques développements récents [Deuxième partie : la redécouverte des rendements croissants]," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 191-243.
    6. Aurora Teixeira & Natércia Fortuna, 2003. "Human Capital, Innovation Capability and Economic Growth," FEP Working Papers 131, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    7. Bode, Eckhardt, 1996. "Ursachen regionaler Wachstumsunterschiede: wachstumstheoretische Erklärungsansätze," Kiel Working Papers 740, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Aribah Aslam, 2020. "The hotly debate of human capital and economic growth: why institutions may matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1351-1362, August.
    9. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    10. Justin Yifu Lin & Pengfei Zhang, 2007. "Development Strategy, Optimal Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries," Development Economics Working Papers 22710, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Óscar Afonso, 2001. "The Impact of International Trade on Economic Growth," FEP Working Papers 106, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    12. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796, Elsevier.
    13. Ruttan, Vernon W., 1998. "Growth Economics And Development Economics: What Should Development Economists Learn (If Anything) From The New Growth Theory?," Bulletins 12972, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
    14. Wilhelm, Rainer, 1996. "Endogene Wachstumstheorien und ihre Implikationen für Entwicklungsländer," Discussion Papers in Development Economics 20, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Institute for Development Economics.
    15. William Darity & Lewis S. Davis, 2005. "Growth, trade and uneven development," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 29(1), pages 141-170, January.
    16. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1990. "Lecture Notes on Economic Growth: Five Prototype Models of Endogenous Growth. Volume II," Center Discussion Papers 321324, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    17. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    18. Jun, Bogang & Kim, Tai-Yoo, 2015. "A neo-Schumpeterian perspective on the analytical macroeconomic framework: The expanded reproduction system," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2015, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    19. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    20. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:07-2005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: QL THor (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sesmusg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.