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The Timing of Uncertainty and The Intensity of Policy

Author

Listed:
  • P. Ruben Mercado
Abstract
This article analyzes the trade-off between ÏcautionÓ and ÏintensityÓ in the use of the control variable in a one-state one-control dynamic stochastic quadratic linear optimization problem with discount factor. It studies the effects that changes in uncertainty of the control parameter have on the optimal first-period response of the control variable, showing that the trade-off between ÏcautionÓ and ÏintensityÓ depends on the timing of the uncertainty. Given an increase in current uncertainty and an equal increase in future uncertainty, caution will always prevail over intensity. Moreover, the prevalence of caution will be enlarged as the increase in future uncertainty moves farther away into the future, while this prevalence will be reduced as the increase in future uncertainty expands into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Ruben Mercado, 2001. "The Timing of Uncertainty and The Intensity of Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 55, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:55
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shupp, Franklin R., 1976. "Uncertainty and optimal stabilization policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 243-253, October.
    2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
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    5. Amman, Hans M & Kendrick, David A, 1999. "Should Macroeconomic Policy Makers Consider Parameter Covariances?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 263-267, December.
    6. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 1996. "The DUALI/DUALPC Software for Optimal Control Models: Introduction," CARE Working Papers 9602, The University of Texas at Austin, Center for Applied Research in Economics.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Mercado, P. Ruben & Kendrick, David A., 2000. "Caution in macroeconomic policy: uncertainty and the relative intensity of policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 37-41, July.
    9. Chow, Gregory C, 1973. "Effect of Uncertainty on Optimal Control Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 632-645, October.
    10. Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2004. "Robust Control: A Note on the Timing of Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 147, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. P. Mercado & David Kendrick, 2006. "Parameter Uncertainty and Policy Intensity: Some Extensions and Suggestions for Further Work," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 483-496, June.
    3. Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2004. "Robust Control: A Note on the Timing of Model Uncertainty," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 209-221, July.
    4. Kendrick, David A., 2005. "Stochastic control for economic models: past, present and the paths ahead," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 3-30, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Policy Uncertainty; Stochastic Control; Macroeconomic Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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