[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sap/wpaper/wp245.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Dario Guarascio
  • Alessandro Piccirillo
  • Jelena Reljic
Abstract
This study conducts a meta-analysis to assess the effects of robotization on employment and wages, compiling data from 33 studies with 644 estimates on employment and a subset of 19 studies with 195 estimates on wages. We identify a publication bias towards negative outcomes, especially concerning wages. After correcting for this bias, the actual impact appears minimal. Thus, concerns about the disruptive effects of robots on employment and the risk of widespread technological unemployment may be exaggerated or not yet empirically supported. While this does not preclude that robots will be capable of gaining greater disruptive potential in the future or that they are not already disruptive in specific contexts, the evidence to date suggests their aggregate effect is negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Guarascio & Alessandro Piccirillo & Jelena Reljic, 2024. "Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis," Working Papers in Public Economics 245, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    • Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dipecodir.it/wpsap/data/wp245.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Vivarelli, 2014. "Innovation, Employment and Skills in Advanced and Developing Countries: A Survey of Economic Literature," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 123-154.
    2. Francesco Chiacchio & Georgios Petropoulos & David Pichler, 2018. "The impact of industrial robots on EU employment and wages- A local labour market approach," Working Papers 25186, Bruegel.
    3. Giuntella, Osea & Wang, Tianyi, 2019. "Is an Army of Robots Marching on Chinese Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 12281, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Nicoletta Corrocher & Daniele Moschella & Jacopo Staccioli & Marco Vivarelli, 2024. "Innovation and the labor market: theory, evidence, and challenges," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(3), pages 519-540.
    5. Sotiris Blanas & Gino Gancia & Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, 2019. "Who is afraid of machines?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(100), pages 627-690.
    6. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Does economic globalisation affect income inequality? A meta‐analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 2960-2982, November.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/170cd4sul89ddpnfuomvfm0jc0 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Katja Mann & Lukas Püttmann, 2023. "Benign Effects of Automation: New Evidence from Patent Texts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 562-579, May.
    9. Gechert, Sebastian & Heimberger, Philipp, 2022. "Do corporate tax cuts boost economic growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    10. Adriana D. Kugler & Maurice Kugler & Laura Ripani & Rodimiro Rodrigo, 2020. "U.S. Robots and their Impacts in the Tropics: Evidence from Colombian Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 28034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Heimberger, Philipp, 2021. "Corporate tax competition: A meta-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2018. "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 894-931.
    13. Cazachevici, Alina & Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Remittances and economic growth: A meta-analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    14. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    15. Albinowski, Maciej & Lewandowski, Piotr, 2024. "The impact of ICT and robots on labour market outcomes of demographic groups in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    16. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    17. Krenz, Astrid & Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2021. "Robots, reshoring, and the lot of low-skilled workers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    18. Dosi, G. & Piva, M. & Virgillito, M.E. & Vivarelli, M., 2021. "Embodied and disembodied technological change: The sectoral patterns of job-creation and job-destruction," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(4).
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    20. Philipp Heimberger, 2022. "Does economic globalisation promote economic growth? A meta‐analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(6), pages 1690-1712, June.
    21. Pouliakas, Konstantinos, 2018. "Determinants of Automation Risk in the EU Labour Market: A Skills-Needs Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 11829, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. John P. A. Ioannidis & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2017. "The Power of Bias in Economics Research," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 236-265, October.
    23. Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel & Xavier Jaravel, 2020. "What Are the Labor and Product Market Effects of Automation? New Evidence from France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403062, HAL.
    24. Tang, Chengjian & Huang, Keqi & Liu, Qiren, 2021. "Robots and skill-biased development in employment structure: Evidence from China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    25. Bogliacino, Francesco & Pianta, Mario, 2010. "Innovation and Employment: a Reinvestigation using Revised Pavitt classes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 799-809, July.
    26. Doucouliagos, Hristos (Chris), 2011. "How large is large? Preliminary and relative guidelines for interpreting partial correlations in economics," Working Papers eco_2011_5, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    27. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Özcan, Berkay & Philipp, Julia, 2021. "Robots and the gender pay gap in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    28. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Olesia Zeynalova, 2018. "Tuition Fees and University Enrolment: A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1145-1184, December.
    29. Barbieri, Laura & Mussida, Chiara & Piva, Mariacristina & Vivarelli, Marco, 2019. "Testing the Employment Impact of Automation, Robots and AI: A Survey and Some Methodological Issues," IZA Discussion Papers 12612, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    30. (Maggie) Fu, Xiaoqing & Bao, Qun & Xie, Hongjun & Fu, Xiaolan, 2021. "Diffusion of industrial robotics and inclusive growth: Labour market evidence from cross country data," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 670-684.
    31. Carbonero, Francesco. & Ernst, Ekkehard & Weber, Enzo., 2018. "Robots worldwide the impact of automation on employment and trade," ILO Working Papers 995008793402676, International Labour Organization.
    32. Balsmeier, Benjamin & Woerter, Martin, 2019. "Is this time different? How digitalization influences job creation and destruction," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(8), pages 1-1.
    33. de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Gentile, Elisabetta & Miroudot, Sébastien & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2020. "The rise of robots and the fall of routine jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    34. Fabien Petit & Florencia Jaccoud & Tommaso Ciarli, 2023. "Heterogeneous Adjustments of Labor Markets to Automation Technologies," CESifo Working Paper Series 10237, CESifo.
    35. Rodimiro Rodrigo, 2022. "Robot Adoption, Organizational Capital and the Productivity Paradox," Working Papers gueconwpa~22-22-03, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    36. Sequeira, Tiago Neves & Garrido, Susana & Santos, Marcelo, 2021. "Robots are not always bad for employment and wages," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 108-119.
    37. Stemmler, Henry, 2023. "Automated Deindustrialization: How Global Robotization Affects Emerging Economies—Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    38. Jay Dixon & Bryan Hong & Lynn Wu, 2021. "The Robot Revolution: Managerial and Employment Consequences for Firms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5586-5605, September.
    39. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 1973-2016, September.
    40. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    41. Faber, Marius, 2020. "Robots and reshoring: Evidence from Mexican labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    42. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Mandelman, Federico S., 2021. "Digital adoption, automation, and labor markets in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    43. Armanda Cetrulo & Valeria Cirillo & Dario Guarascio, 2019. "Weaker jobs, weaker innovation. Exploring the effects of temporary employment on new products," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(59), pages 6350-6375, December.
    44. Gravina, Antonio Francesco & Pappalardo, Maria Rosaria, 2022. "Are robots in rich countries a threat for employment in emerging economies?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    45. Ballestar, María Teresa & Díaz-Chao, Ángel & Sainz, Jorge & Torrent-Sellens, Joan, 2020. "Knowledge, robots and productivity in SMEs: Explaining the second digital wave," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 119-131.
    46. Flavio Calvino & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "The Innovation†Employment Nexus: A Critical Survey Of Theory And Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 83-117, February.
    47. Stefan Jestl, 2022. "Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology: The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets," wiiw Working Papers 215, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    48. Jung, Jin Hwa & Lim, Dong-Geon, 2020. "Industrial robots, employment growth, and labor cost: A simultaneous equation analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    49. Dekle, Robert, 2020. "Robots and industrial labor: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    50. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3n1gbsj6rs80ipqv9d42nfd0ge is not listed on IDEAS
    51. Fabiano Compagnucci & Andrea Gentili & Enzo Valentini & Mauro Gallegati, 2019. "Robotization and labour dislocation in the manufacturing sectors of OECD countries: a panel VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(57), pages 6127-6138, December.
    52. Ge, Suqin & Zhou, Yu, 2020. "Robots, computers, and the gender wage gap," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 194-222.
    53. George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman, 2019. "From Immigrants to Robots: The Changing Locus of Substitutes for Workers," NBER Working Papers 25438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Reljic, Jelena & Cirillo, Valeria & Guarascio, Dario, 2023. "Regimes of robotization in Europe," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    55. Nancey Green Leigh & Benjamin Kraft & Heonyeong Lee, 2020. "Robots, skill demand and manufacturing in US regional labour markets," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 13(1), pages 77-97.
    56. Schmidpeter, Bernhard & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2021. "Automation, unemployment, and the role of labor market training," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    57. Chris Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2013. "Are All Economic Facts Greatly Exaggerated? Theory Competition And Selectivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 316-339, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jurkat, Anne & Klump, Rainer & Schneider, Florian, 2023. "Robots and Wages: A Meta-Analysis," EconStor Preprints 274156, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Filippi, Emilia & Bannò, Mariasole & Trento, Sandro, 2023. "Automation technologies and their impact on employment: A review, synthesis and future research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 107909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    5. Wang, Ting & Zhang, Yi & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Robot adoption and employment adjustment: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Kerstin Hotte & Melline Somers & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2022. "Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review," Papers 2204.01296, arXiv.org.
    7. Zhang, Xinchun & Sun, Murong & Liu, Jianxu & Xu, Aijia, 2024. "The nexus between industrial robot and employment in China: The effects of technology substitution and technology creation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    8. Barbieri, Laura & Mussida, Chiara & Piva, Mariacristina & Vivarelli, Marco, 2019. "Testing the employment and skill impact of new technologies: A survey and some methodological issues," MERIT Working Papers 2019-032, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. M. Battisti & M. Del Gatto & A. F. Gravina & C. F. Parmeter, 2021. "Robots versus labor skills: a complementarity/substitutability analysis," Working Paper CRENoS 202104, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    10. Zhang, Yi & Wang, Ting & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Beyond the modern productivity paradox: The effect of robotics technology on firm-level total factor productivity in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2024. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 259-288.
    12. Borsato, Andrea & Lorentz, André, 2023. "The Kaldor–Verdoorn law at the age of robots and AI," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(10).
    13. Chen, Yang & Cheng, Liang & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "How does the use of industrial robots affect the ecological footprint? International evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    14. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," GLO Discussion Paper Series 802, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    15. Alguacil Marí, María Teresa & Lo Turco, Alessia & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2020. "What is so special about robots and trade?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 410, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    16. Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco, 2022. "Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    17. Damioli, G. & Van Roy, V. & Vertesy, D. & Vivarelli, M., 2021. "May AI revolution be labour-friendly? Some micro evidence from the supply side," GLO Discussion Paper Series 823, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Nikolova, Milena & Cnossen, Femke & Nikolaev, Boris, 2024. "Robots, meaning, and self-determination," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    19. Deng Liuchun & Plümpe Verena & Stegmaier Jens, 2024. "Robot Adoption at German Plants," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 244(3), pages 201-235, June.
    20. Liu, Liang & Yang, Kun & Fujii, Hidemichi & Liu, Jun, 2021. "Artificial intelligence and energy intensity in China’s industrial sector: Effect and transmission channel," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 276-293.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    robots; employment; wages; meta-analysis; publication bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Luisa Giuriato (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ecodir.web.uniroma1.it/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.