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Textual Factors: A Scalable, Interpretable, and Data-driven Approach to Analyzing Unstructured Information

Author

Listed:
  • Lin William Cong
  • Tengyuan Liang
  • Xiao Zhang
  • Wu Zhu
Abstract
We introduce a general approach for analyzing large-scale text-based data, combining the strengths of neural network language processing and generative statistical modeling to create a factor structure of unstructured data for downstream regressions typically used in social sciences. We generate textual factors by (i) representing texts using vector word embedding, (ii) clustering the vectors using Locality-Sensitive Hashing to generate supports of topics, and (iii) identifying relatively interpretable spanning clusters (i.e., textual factors) through topic modeling. Our data-driven approach captures complex linguistic structures while ensuring computational scalability and economic interpretability, plausibly attaining certain advantages over and complementing other unstructured data analytics used by researchers, including emergent large language models. We conduct initial validation tests of the framework and discuss three types of its applications: (i) enhancing prediction and inference with texts, (ii) interpreting (non-text-based) models, and (iii) constructing new text-based metrics and explanatory variables. We illustrate each of these applications using examples in finance and economics such as macroeconomic forecasting from news articles, interpreting multi-factor asset pricing models from corporate filings, and measuring theme-based technology breakthroughs from patents. Finally, we provide a flexible statistical package of textual factors for online distribution to facilitate future research and applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin William Cong & Tengyuan Liang & Xiao Zhang & Wu Zhu, 2024. "Textual Factors: A Scalable, Interpretable, and Data-driven Approach to Analyzing Unstructured Information," NBER Working Papers 33168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33168
    Note: AP CF TWP
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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