[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/33159.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Beyond the Fundamentals: How Media-Driven Narratives Influence Cross-Border Capital Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Isha Agarwal
  • Wentong Chen
  • Eswar S. Prasad
Abstract
We provide the first empirical evidence on how media-driven narratives influence cross-border institutional investment flows. Applying natural language processing techniques to one-and-a-half million newspaper articles, we document substantial cross-country variation in sentiment and risk indices constructed from domestic media narratives about China in 15 countries. These narratives significantly affect portfolio flows, even after controlling for macroeconomic and financial fundamentals. This impact is smaller for investors with greater familiarity or private information about China and larger during periods of heightened uncertainty. Political and environmental narratives are as influential as economic narratives. Investors react more sharply to negative narratives than positive ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Isha Agarwal & Wentong Chen & Eswar S. Prasad, 2024. "Beyond the Fundamentals: How Media-Driven Narratives Influence Cross-Border Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 33159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33159
    Note: CF IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w33159.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Ng, David T. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2020. "The Coming Wave: Where Do Emerging Market Investors Put Their Money?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(4), pages 1369-1414, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    2. Franziska Hunnekes & Maximilian Konradt & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch & Julian Wingenbach, 2023. "Exportweltmeister- Germany's Foreign Investment Returns in International Comparison," IHEID Working Papers 03-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Socaciu Erzsébet-Mirjám, 2023. "The Nexus Between Foreign Portfolio Diversification and Kinship," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 68(2), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2016. "The gravity of culture for finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 610-625.
    5. Cerutti, Eugenio & Casanova, Catherine & Pradhan, Swapan-Kumar, 2023. "Banking across borders: Are Chinese banks different?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    6. Luo, Mancy, 2017. "Essays in financial intermediation and political economy," Other publications TiSEM 146f40d3-6c89-4c6d-8fea-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Jagannathan, Murali & Jiao, Wei & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2022. "Is there a home field advantage in global markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 742-770.
    8. Socaciu, Erzsébet-Mirjám & Nagy, Bálint-Zsolt & Benedek, Botond, 2023. "No place like home: Home bias and flight-to-quality in Group of Seven countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi, 2021. "Do visiting monks give better sermons? An analysis of the foreign experience of Chinese fund managers," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Li, Wei & Wang, Xin & Zhang, Haofei, 2024. "The role of distance and financial development: Evidence from international financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Adams-Kane, Jonathon & Lopez, Claude & Wilhelmus, Jakob, 2016. "2016 Global Opportunity Index," MPRA Paper 73720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Özmen, Erdal & Taşdemir, Fatma, 2021. "Gross capital inflows and outflows: Twins or distant cousins?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    13. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Mönkemeyer, Marwin & Requejo, Ignacio & Schröder, Henning, 2023. "Foreign bias in institutional portfolio allocation: The role of social trust," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 233-269.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.