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Scaling Agricultural Policy Interventions

Author

Listed:
  • Lauren F. Bergquist
  • Benjamin Faber
  • Thibault Fally
  • Matthias Hoelzlein
  • Edward Miguel
  • Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
Abstract
Policies aimed at raising agricultural productivity have been a centerpiece in the fight against global poverty. Their impacts are often measured using field or quasi-experiments that provide strong causal identification, but may be too small-scale to capture the general equilibrium (GE) effects that emerge once the policy is scaled up. We propose a new approach for quantifying large-scale GE policy counterfactuals that can both complement and be informed by evidence from field and quasi-experiments. We develop a quantitative model of farm production, consumption and trading that captures important features of this setting, and propose a new solution method that relies on rich but widely available microdata. We showcase our approach in the context of a subsidy for modern inputs in Uganda, using variation from field and quasi-experiments for parameter estimation. We find that both the average and distributional impacts of the subsidy differ meaningfully when comparing a local intervention to one at scale, even for the same sample of farmers, and quantify the underlying mechanisms. We further document new insights on how GE forces differ as a function of saturation rates at different geographical scales, and on the importance of capturing a granular economic geography for counterfactual analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauren F. Bergquist & Benjamin Faber & Thibault Fally & Matthias Hoelzlein & Edward Miguel & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2022. "Scaling Agricultural Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 30704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30704
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Yan Ji & Songyuan Teng & Robert Townsend, 2021. "Dynamic Bank Expansion: Spatial Growth, Financial Access, and Inequality," NBER Working Papers 28582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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