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A New Test for Market Efficiency and Uncovered Interest Parity

Author

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  • Richard T. Baillie
  • Francis X. Diebold
  • George Kapetanios
  • Kun Ho Kim
Abstract
We suggest a new single-equation test for Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) based on a dynamic regression approach. The method provides consistent and asymptotically efficient parameter estimates, and is not dependent on assumptions of strict exogeneity. This new approach is asymptotically more efficient than the common approach of using OLS with HAC robust standard errors in the static forward premium regression. The coefficient estimates when spot return changes are regressed on the forward premium are all positive and remarkably stable across currencies. These estimates are considerably larger than those of previous studies, which frequently find negative coefficients. The method also has the advantage of showing dynamic effects of risk premia, or other events that may lead to rejection of UIP or the efficient markets hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard T. Baillie & Francis X. Diebold & George Kapetanios & Kun Ho Kim, 2022. "A New Test for Market Efficiency and Uncovered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 30638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30638
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard T. Baillie & Francis X. Diebold & George Kapetanios & Kun Ho Kim, 2022. "On Robust Inference in Time Series Regression," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
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    Cited by:

    1. Constantin Bürgi & Mengdi Song, 2024. "Do Professional Forecasters Follow Uncovered Interest Rate Parity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11338, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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