[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/29305.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foundations of Demand Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Steven T. Berry
  • Philip A. Haile
Abstract
Demand elasticities and other features of demand are critical determinants of the answers to most positive and normative questions about market power or the functioning of markets in practice. As a result, reliable demand estimation is an essential input to many types of research in Industrial Organization and other fields of economics. This chapter presents a discussion of some foundational issues in demand estimation. We focus on the distinctive challenges of demand estimation and strategies one can use to overcome them. We cover core models, alternative data settings, common estimation approaches, the role and choice of instruments, and nonparametric identification.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2021. "Foundations of Demand Estimation," NBER Working Papers 29305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29305
    Note: IO
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w29305.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean‐Pierre Dubé & Jeremy T. Fox & Che‐Lin Su, 2012. "Improving the Numerical Performance of Static and Dynamic Aggregate Discrete Choice Random Coefficients Demand Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 2231-2267, September.
    2. Reynaert, Mathias & Verboven, Frank, 2014. "Improving the performance of random coefficients demand models: The role of optimal instruments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 83-98.
    3. Steven Berry & Amit Gandhi & Philip Haile, 2013. "Connected Substitutes and Invertibility of Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(5), pages 2087-2111, September.
    4. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and consumer inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, September.
    5. Patrick Bayer & Christopher Timmins, 2007. "Estimating Equilibrium Models Of Sorting Across Locations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(518), pages 353-374, March.
    6. Jerry Hausman & Gregory Leonard & J. Douglas Zona, 1994. "Competitive Analysis with Differentiated Products," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 34, pages 143-157.
    7. repec:adr:anecst:y:1994:i:34:p:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Marc Rysman, 2012. "Dynamics of Consumer Demand for New Durable Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1173-1219.
    9. Thomas W. Quan & Kevin R. Williams, 2018. "Product variety, across‐market demand heterogeneity, and the value of online retail," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 49(4), pages 877-913, December.
    10. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
    11. Jerry A. Hausman, 1996. "Valuation of New Goods under Perfect and Imperfect Competition," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of New Goods, pages 207-248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Brian Adams & Kevin R. Williams, 2019. "Zone Pricing in Retail Oligopoly," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 124-156, February.
    13. Rodrigo Adao & Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson, 2017. "Nonparametric Counterfactual Predictions in Neoclassical Models of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 633-689, March.
    14. Brown, Bryan W, 1983. "The Identification Problem in Systems Nonlinear in the Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 175-196, January.
    15. Richard Blundell & Dennis Kristensen & Rosa Matzkin, 2017. "Individual counterfactuals with multidimensional unobserved heterogeneity," CeMMAP working papers CWP60/17, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    16. Mogens Fosgerau & Julien Monardo & André de Palma, 2024. "The Inverse Product Differentiation Logit Model," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 329-370, November.
    17. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2014. "Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1749-1797, September.
    18. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1995. "Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 891-951, July.
    19. Rosa L. Matzkin, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Nonadditive Random Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1339-1375, September.
    20. Matthew Gentzkow, 2007. "Valuing New Goods in a Model with Complementarity: Online Newspapers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 713-744, June.
    21. Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2014. "Estimation of Random-Coefficient Demand Models: Two Empiricists' Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(1), pages 34-59, March.
    22. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Robert McMillan, 2007. "A Unified Framework for Measuring Preferences for Schools and Neighborhoods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 588-638, August.
    23. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    24. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1978. "A Conditional Probit Model for Qualitative Choice: Discrete Decisions Recognizing Interdependence and Heterogeneous Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(2), pages 403-426, March.
    25. Katherine Ho, 2009. "Insurer-Provider Networks in the Medical Care Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 393-430, March.
    26. Rosen, Sherwin, 2007. "Studies in Labor Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226726304, September.
    27. Waldfogel, Joel, 2003. "Preference Externalities: An Empirical Study of Who Benefits Whom in Differentiated-Product Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(3), pages 557-568, Autumn.
    28. Burda, Martin & Harding, Matthew & Hausman, Jerry, 2008. "A Bayesian mixed logit-probit model for multinomial choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 232-246, December.
    29. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
    30. Freyberger, Joachim, 2015. "Asymptotic theory for differentiated products demand models with many markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 162-181.
    31. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Guggenberger, Patrik, 2017. "Asymptotic Size Of Kleibergen’S Lm And Conditional Lr Tests For Moment Condition Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(5), pages 1046-1080, October.
    32. Richard Blundell & Rosa L. Matzkin, 2014. "Control functions in nonseparable simultaneous equations models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 5, pages 271-295, July.
    33. Daniel A. Ackerberg, 2003. "Advertising, learning, and consumer choice in experience good markets: an empirical examination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(3), pages 1007-1040, August.
    34. Joshua D. Angrist & Kathryn Graddy & Guido W. Imbens, 2000. "The Interpretation of Instrumental Variables Estimators in Simultaneous Equations Models with an Application to the Demand for Fish," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(3), pages 499-527.
    35. C. Lanier Benkard & Steven Berry, 2006. "On the Nonparametric Identification of Nonlinear Simultaneous Equations Models: Comment on Brown (1983) and Roehrig (1988)," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(5), pages 1429-1440, September.
    36. Rosse, James N, 1970. "Estimating Cost Function Parameters without Using Cost Data: Illustrated Methodology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 256-275, March.
    37. Guido W. Imbens & Whitney K. Newey, 2009. "Identification and Estimation of Triangular Simultaneous Equations Models Without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1481-1512, September.
    38. Ying Fan, 2013. "Ownership Consolidation and Product Characteristics: A Study of the US Daily Newspaper Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1598-1628, August.
    39. Rebecca Diamond, 2016. "The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers' Diverging Location Choices by Skill: 1980-2000," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 479-524, March.
    40. Timothy B. Armstrong, 2016. "Large Market Asymptotics for Differentiated Product Demand Estimators With Economic Models of Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1961-1980, September.
    41. Nathan H. Miller & Matthew C. Weinberg, 2017. "Understanding the Price Effects of the MillerCoors Joint Venture," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85(6), pages 1763-1791, November.
    42. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Economics of New Goods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bres96-1.
    43. Jean‐Pierre Dubé & Günter J. Hitsch & Peter E. Rossi, 2010. "State dependence and alternative explanations for consumer inertia," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(3), pages 417-445, September.
    44. Isaiah Andrews & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2017. "Measuring the Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Estimation Moments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1553-1592.
    45. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and Consumer Inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, Autumn.
    46. Richard E. Quandt, 1956. "A Probabilistic Theory of Consumer Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(4), pages 507-536.
    47. Capps, Cory & Dranove, David & Satterthwaite, Mark, 2003. "Competition and Market Power in Option Demand Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 34(4), pages 737-763, Winter.
    48. Thomas W. Quan & Kevin R. Williams, 2017. "Product Variety, Across-Market Demand Heterogeneity, and the Value of Online Retail," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2054R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2018.
    49. Amil Petrin, 2002. "Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 705-729, August.
    50. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    51. Debopam Bhattacharya, 2018. "Empirical welfare analysis for discrete choice: Some general results," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 571-615, July.
    52. Isaiah Andrews, 2018. "Valid Two-Step Identification-Robust Confidence Sets for GMM," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 337-348, May.
    53. Nikhil Agarwal & Paulo Somaini, 2018. "Demand Analysis Using Strategic Reports: An Application to a School Choice Mechanism," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 391-444, March.
    54. Benjamin R. Handel, 2013. "Adverse Selection and Inertia in Health Insurance Markets: When Nudging Hurts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2643-2682, December.
    55. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, September.
    56. Alon Eizenberg, 2014. "Upstream Innovation and Product Variety in the U.S. Home PC Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(3), pages 1003-1045.
    57. Christopher Conlon & Jeff Gortmaker, 2020. "Best practices for differentiated products demand estimation with PyBLP," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(4), pages 1108-1161, December.
    58. James J. Heckman, 1981. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 91-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lei Lu & Jianxing Wei & Weixing Wu & Yi Zhou, 2023. "Pricing strategies in BigTech lending: Evidence from China," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 333-374, June.
    2. Mayer, Thierry & Head, Keith, 2021. "Poor Substitutes? Counterfactual methods in IO and Trade compared," CEPR Discussion Papers 16762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Aaron L. Bodoh-Creed & Brent R. Hickman & John A. List & Ian Muir & Gregory K. Sun, 2023. "Stress Testing Structural Models of Unobserved Heterogeneity: Robust Inference on Optimal Nonlinear Pricing," NBER Working Papers 31647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. O’Connell, Martin & Smith, Howard & Thomassen, Øyvind, 2023. "A two sample size estimator for large data sets," Discussion Papers 2023/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    5. Aimene, Louise & Guiffard, Jean-Baptiste & Ivaldi, Marc & Liang, Julienne, 2023. "Welfare Cost of Mobile Spectrum (Mis)allocation," TSE Working Papers 23-1407, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Flynn, Joel P. & Sastry, Karthik A., 2023. "Strategic mistakes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Pédussel Wu, Jennifer & Metzger, Martina & Neira, Ignacio Silva & Farroukh, Arafet, 2023. "What determines demand for digital community currencies? OurVillage in Cameroon," IPE Working Papers 209/2023, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. Atsushi Iimi, 2023. "Estimating the demand for informal public transport: evidence from Antananarivo, Madagascar," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 129-168, March.
    9. Nicolas Lagios & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2023. "A Matter of Taste: The Negative Welfare Effect of Expert Judgments," Working Papers CEB 23-009, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. repec:ags:aaea22:335854 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Mansley, Ryan & Miller, Nathan H. & Sheu, Gloria & Weinberg, Matthew C., 2023. "A price leadership model for merger analysis," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. Enache, Andreea & Friberg, Richard & Wiklander, Magnus, 2023. "Demand for in-app purchases in mobile apps—A difference-in-difference approach," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Dean Hyslop & Trinh Le & David Maré & Lynn Riggs & Nic Watson, 2023. "Domestic transport charges: Estimation of transport-related elasticities," Working Papers 23_10, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2024. "Nonparametric Identification of Differentiated Products Demand Using Micro Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(4), pages 1135-1162, July.
    2. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2014. "Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1749-1797, September.
    3. Lu, Zhentong & Shi, Xiaoxia & Tao, Jing, 2023. "Semi-nonparametric estimation of random coefficients logit model for aggregate demand," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2245-2265.
    4. Mogens Fosgerau & Julien Monardo & André de Palma, 2024. "The Inverse Product Differentiation Logit Model," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 329-370, November.
    5. Amit Gandhi & Jean-François Houde, 2019. "Measuring Substitution Patterns in Differentiated-Products Industries," NBER Working Papers 26375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Wang, Ao, 2021. "A BLP Demand Model of Product-Level Market Shares with Complementarity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1351, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    7. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2009. "Nonparametric Identification of Multinomial Choice Demand Models with Heterogeneous Consumers," NBER Working Papers 15276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    9. Christopher Conlon & Jeff Gortmaker, 2020. "Best practices for differentiated products demand estimation with PyBLP," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(4), pages 1108-1161, December.
    10. Matthew Backus & Christopher Conlon & Michael Sinkinson, 2021. "Common Ownership and Competition in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," NBER Working Papers 28350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pietro Tebaldi & Alexander Torgovitsky & Hanbin Yang, 2023. "Nonparametric Estimates of Demand in the California Health Insurance Exchange," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(1), pages 107-146, January.
    12. Steven Berry & Philip Haile, 2016. "Identification in Differentiated Products Markets," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 27-52, October.
    13. Wang, Ao, 2023. "Sieve BLP: A semi-nonparametric model of demand for differentiated products," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 325-351.
    14. Byrne, David P. & Imai, Susumu & Jain, Neelam & Sarafidis, Vasilis, 2022. "Instrument-free identification and estimation of differentiated products models using cost data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 278-301.
    15. Alessandro Iaria, & Wang, Ao, 2021. "An Empirical Model of Quantity Discounts with Large Choice Sets," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1378, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    16. Christopher Conlon & Julie Holland Mortimer, 2021. "Empirical properties of diversion ratios," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(4), pages 693-726, December.
    17. Donna, Javier D., 2018. "Measuring Long-Run Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 90059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. David P. Byrne & Susumu Imai & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2015. "Instrument-free Identifcation and Estimation of the Diferentiated Products Models," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1198, The University of Melbourne.
    19. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2021. "Poor Substitutes? Counterfactual methods in IO and Trade compared," Working Papers 2021-11, CEPII research center.
    20. Bokhari, Farasat A.S. & Mariuzzo, Franco, 2018. "Demand estimation and merger simulations for drugs: Logits v. AIDS," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 653-685.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.