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Unemployment, Inflation, and Wages in the American Depression: Are There Lessons for Europe?

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  • Ben Bernanke
  • Martin Parkinson
Abstract
In this paper, we consider whether there are lessons to be drawn from the experience of the American economy during the 1930's for the current European situation. The comparison reveals some important differences: In particular, the persistence of American unemployment in the 1930's reflected to a much greater degree a sequence of large destabilizing shocks, and much less a low-level equilibrium trap, than does modern European unemployment. The self-correcting tendencies of the 1930's U.S. economy were probably much stronger than is generally acknowledged. However, the experience of the Depression era confirms the modern observation that the level of unemployment does not much affect the rate of inflation--an observation that, we argue, is consistent with macro theory. The Depression experience also supports the impression that political factors are important in real wage determination.

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  • Ben Bernanke & Martin Parkinson, 1989. "Unemployment, Inflation, and Wages in the American Depression: Are There Lessons for Europe?," NBER Working Papers 2862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2862
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Temin & Barrie A. Wigmore, 1988. "The End of One Big Deflation," Working papers 503, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(02), pages 26-32, July.
    2. Price V. Fishback & William C. Horrace & Shawn Kantor, 2001. "The Impact of New Deal Expenditures on Local Economic Activity: An Examination of Retail Sales, 1929-1939," NBER Working Papers 8108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alfonso ARPAIA & Nicola CURCI, "undated". "EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession," Working Papers wp2010-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    4. Robert A. Margo, 1993. "Employment and Unemployment in the 1930s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 41-59, Spring.
    5. Robert J. Gordon & Robert Krenn, 2010. "The End of the Great Depression 1939-41: Policy Contributions and Fiscal Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 16380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "To the problem of evaluation of market risk of global equity index portfolio in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 47708, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jun 2013.
    7. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 757-784, December.
    8. Lowell E. Gallaway, 2010. "Unions, the High-Wage Doctrine, and Employment," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 30(1), pages 197-213, Winter.

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