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Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts

Author

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  • Rava Azeredo da Silveira
  • Yeji Sung
  • Michael Woodford
Abstract
We propose a model of optimal decision making subject to a memory constraint. The constraint is a limit on the complexity of memory measured using Shannon's mutual information, as in models of rational inattention; but our theory differs from that of Sims (2003) in not assuming costless memory of past cognitive states. We show that the model implies that both forecasts and actions will exhibit idiosyncratic random variation; that average beliefs will also differ from rational expectations beliefs, with a bias that fluctuates forever with a variance that does not fall to zero even in the long run; and that more recent news will be given disproportionate weight in forecasts. We solve the model under a variety of assumptions about the degree of persistence of the variable to be forecasted and the horizon over which it must be forecasted, and examine how the nature of forecast biases depends on these parameters. The model provides a simple explanation for the over-reaction to news observed in the laboratory by Afrouzi et al. (2023).

Suggested Citation

  • Rava Azeredo da Silveira & Yeji Sung & Michael Woodford, 2020. "Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 28075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28075
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khaw, Mel Win & Stevens, Luminita & Woodford, Michael, 2017. "Discrete adjustment to a changing environment: Experimental evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 88-103.
    2. Hassan Afrouzi & Spencer Yongwook Kwon & Augustin Landier & Yueran Ma & David Thesmar, 2020. "Overreaction and Working Memory," NBER Working Papers 27947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. George W. Evans, 2001. "Expectations in Macroeconomics. Adaptive versus Eductive Learning," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(3), pages 573-582.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    5. Milani, Fabio, 2014. "Learning and time-varying macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 94-114.
    6. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
    7. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    8. Fuhrer, Jeff, 2017. "Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: Evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 22-35.
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    Cited by:

    1. Constantin Bürgi & Julio L. Ortiz, 2022. "Overreaction through Anchoring," CESifo Working Paper Series 10193, CESifo.
    2. Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Attention to the Macroeconomy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 256, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    3. Salle, Isabelle & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Coibion, Olivier, 2023. "Lifetime Memories of Inflation: Evidence from Surveys and the Lab," CEPR Discussion Papers 18684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. José Daniel Aromí, 2021. "Large Current Account Deficits and Neglected Vulnerabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 597-623, December.
    5. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2021. "Determinacy without the Taylor Principle," NBER Working Papers 28881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2023. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. Xiao, Wei, 2022. "Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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