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What Difference Does a Health Plan Make? Evidence from Random Plan Assignment in Medicaid

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  • Michael Geruso
  • Timothy J. Layton
  • Jacob Wallace
Abstract
Exploiting the random assignment of Medicaid beneficiaries to managed care plans, we find substantial plan-specific spending effects despite plans having identical cost sharing. Enrollment in the lowest-spending plan generates 30% lower spending—driven by differences in quantity—relative to enrollment in the highest-spending plan. Rather than reducing “wasteful” spending, lower-spending plans broadly reduce medical service provision—including the provision of low-cost, high-value care—and worsen beneficiary satisfaction and health. Consumer demand follows spending: a 10 percent increase in plan-specific spending is associated with a 40 percent increase in market share. These facts have implications for the government’s contracting problem and program cost growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Geruso & Timothy J. Layton & Jacob Wallace, 2020. "What Difference Does a Health Plan Make? Evidence from Random Plan Assignment in Medicaid," NBER Working Papers 27762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27762
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    Cited by:

    1. Desai, Sunita M. & Padmanabhan, Prianca & Chen, Alan Z. & Lewis, Ashley & Glied, Sherry A., 2023. "Hospital concentration and low-income populations: Evidence from New York State Medicaid," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Timothy Layton & Ellen J. Montz & Mark Shepard, 2017. "Health Plan Payment in U.S. Marketplaces: Regulated Competition with a Weak Mandate," NBER Working Papers 23444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Calvin Ackley & Abe Dunn & Eli Liebman & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2024. "Are Medicaid and Medicare Patients Treated Equally?," Working Paper Series 2024-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Timothy Layton & Alice K. Ndikumana & Mark Shepard, 2017. "Health Plan Payment in Medicaid Managed Care: A Hybrid Model of Regulated Competition," NBER Working Papers 23518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Benjamin R. Handel & Jonathan T. Kolstad, 2021. "The Affordable Care Act After a Decade: Industrial Organization of the Insurance Exchanges," NBER Working Papers 29178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Amitabh Chandra & Evan Flack & Ziad Obermeyer, 2021. "The Health Costs of Cost-Sharing," NBER Working Papers 28439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private

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