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An Experimental Comparison of Carbon Pricing Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Trevor L. Davis
  • Mark C. Thurber
  • Frank A. Wolak
Abstract
We report on an economic experiment that compares outcomes in electricity markets subject to carbon-tax and cap-and-trade policies. Under conditions of uncertainty, price-based and quantity-based policy instruments cannot be truly equivalent, so we compared three matched carbon-tax/cap-and-trade pairs with equivalent emissions targets, mean emissions, and mean carbon prices, respectively. Across these matched pairs, the cap-and-trade mechanism produced much higher wholesale electricity prices (38.5% to 52.6% higher) and lower total electricity production (2.5% to 4.0% lower) than the “equivalent” carbon tax, without any lower carbon emissions. Market participants who forecast a lower price of carbon in the cap-and-trade games ran their units more than those who forecast a higher price of carbon, which caused emissions from the dirtiest generating units (Coal and Gas Peakers) to be significantly higher (15.2% to 33.0%) than in the carbon tax games. These merit order “mistakes” in the cap-and-trade games suggest an important advantage of the carbon tax as policy: namely, that the cost of carbon can treated by firms as a known input to production.

Suggested Citation

  • Trevor L. Davis & Mark C. Thurber & Frank A. Wolak, 2020. "An Experimental Comparison of Carbon Pricing Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets," NBER Working Papers 27260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27260
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    Cited by:

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    2. Keppler, Jan Horst & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2022. "Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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