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How Would 401(k) ‘Rothification’ Alter Saving, Retirement Security, and Inequality?

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Listed:
  • Vanya Horneff
  • Raimond Maurer
  • Olivia S. Mitchell
Abstract
The US has long incentivized retirement saving in 401(k) and similar retirement accounts by permitting workers to defer taxes on contributions, levying them instead when retirees withdraw funds in retirement. This paper develops a dynamic life cycle model to show how and whether ‘Rothification’ – that is, taxing 401(k) contributions rather than payouts – would alter household saving, investment, and Social Security claiming patterns. We show that these changes differ importantly for low- versus higher-paid workers. We conclude that moving to a system that taxes pension contributions instead of withdrawals will lead to later retirement ages, particularly for the better-educated. It would also reduce work hours and lifetime tax payments and increase consumption inequality in retirement. In addition, we show how these behaviors would differ in a persistently low interest rate environment versus a more “normal” historical return world.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanya Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2019. "How Would 401(k) ‘Rothification’ Alter Saving, Retirement Security, and Inequality?," NBER Working Papers 26437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26437
    Note: AG LS PE
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rogalla, Ralph, 2015. "Optimal life cycle portfolio choice with variable annuities offering liquidity and investment downside protection," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 91-107.
    2. Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla & Tatjana Schimetschek, 2021. "Optimal social security claiming behavior under lump sum incentives: Theory and evidence," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 5-27, March.
    3. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2005. "Optimal Life‐Cycle Asset Allocation: Understanding the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 869-904, April.
    4. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2019. "How will persistent low expected returns shape household economic behavior?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 612-622, October.
    5. Jingjing Chai & Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2011. "Optimal Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle with Flexible Work, Endogenous Retirement, and Lifetime Payouts," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 875-907.
    6. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September.
    7. David A. Love, 2010. "The Effects of Marital Status and Children on Savings and Portfolio Choice," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 385-432, January.
    8. Vanya Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2016. "Putting the Pension Back in 401(k) Plans: Optimal versus Default Longevity Income Annuities," NBER Working Papers 22717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Brown, Jeffrey R., 2001. "Private pensions, mortality risk, and the decision to annuitize," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 29-62, October.
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    11. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G5 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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