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Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?

Author

Listed:
  • Norman Loayza
  • Amine Ouazad
  • Romain Rancière
Abstract
This paper reviews the evolving literature that links financial development, financial crises, and economic growth in the past 20 years. The initial disconnect—with one literature focusing on the effect of financial deepening on long-run growth and another studying its impact on volatility and crisis—has given way to a more nuanced approach that analyzes the two phenomena in an integrated framework. The main finding of this literature is that financial deepening leads to a trade-off between higher economic growth and higher crisis risk; and its main conclusion is that, for at least middle-income countries, the positive growth effects outweigh the negative crisis risk impact. This balanced view has been revisited recently for advanced economies, where an emerging and controversial literature supports the notion of "too much finance," suggesting that there might be a threshold beyond which financial depth becomes detrimental for economic growth by crowding out other productive activities and misallocating resources. Nevertheless, the growth/crisis trade-off is alive and strong for a large share of the world economy. Recognizing the intrinsic trade-offs of financial development can provide a useful framework to design policies targeting financial deepening, diversity, and inclusion. In particular, acknowledging the trade-offs can highlight the need for complementary policies to mitigate the risks, from financial macroprudential policies to monetary policy frameworks that monitor the growth of credit and asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Norman Loayza & Amine Ouazad & Romain Rancière, 2018. "Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?," NBER Working Papers 24474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24474
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    5. Saka, Orkun & Campos, Nauro F. & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Martelli, Angelo, 2019. "Financial Crises and Liberalization: Progress or Reversals?," IZA Discussion Papers 12393, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    8. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ketteni, Elena & Kottaridi, Constantina, 2019. "Credit market deregulation and economic growth: Further insights using a marginal integration approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Gulshan Kumar & Shallu Batra, 2023. "Interrelationship Between Human Development, Financial Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidences from Indian Economy," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 17(1), pages 60-81, April.
    11. Kilinc, Mustafa & Ulussever, Talat, 2024. "Changing landscape of the finance-growth nexus: Industry growth, credit types, and external financial dependence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Richard Kozul-Wright & Daniel Poon, 2018. "Asian development after the Asian Drama," WIDER Working Paper Series 135, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Sebastian Doerr, 2019. "Unintended side effects: stress tests, entrepreneurship, and innovation," BIS Working Papers 823, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Richard Kozul-Wright & Daniel Poon, 2018. "Asian development after the Asian Drama," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-135, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Rachel Cho & Rodolphe Desbordes & Markus Eberhardt, 2022. "The causal effects of the darker side of financial development," Discussion Papers 2022-04, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    16. Ekkehard Ernst, 2019. "Finance and Jobs: How Financial Markets and Prudential Regulation Shape Unemployment Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, January.
    17. Cristian Valeriu Paun & Radu Cristian Musetescu & Vladimir Mihai Topan & Dan Constantin Danuletiu, 2019. "The Impact of Financial Sector Development and Sophistication on Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, March.
    18. Ch.-M. CHEVALIER, 2018. "Financial constraints of innovative firms and sectoral growth," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2018-05, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    19. Ebrahimy, Ehsan, 2022. "Liquidity choice and misallocation of credit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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