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Short-Run Effects of Lower Productivity Growth. A Twist on the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Blanchard
  • Guido Lorenzoni
  • Jean-Paul L'Huillier
Abstract
Since 2010, U.S. GDP growth has been anemic, averaging 2.1% a year, and this despite interest rates very close to zero. Historically, one would have expected such low sustained rates to lead to much stronger demand. They have not. For a while, one could point to plausible culprits, from a weak financial system to fiscal consolidation. But, as time passed, the financial system strengthened, fiscal consolidation came to an end, and still growth did not pick up. We argue that this is due, in large part, not to legacies of the past but to lower optimism about the future, more specifically to downward revisions in forecast potential growth. Put simply, the anticipation of a less bright future is leading to temporarily weaker demand. If our explanation is correct, it has important implications for policy and for forecasts. It may weaken the case for secular stagnation, as it suggests that the need for very low interest rates may be partly temporary.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Blanchard & Guido Lorenzoni & Jean-Paul L'Huillier, 2017. "Short-Run Effects of Lower Productivity Growth. A Twist on the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 23160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-3070, December.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "Revisions to CBO's Projection of Potential Output Since 2007," Reports 45150, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "Revisions to CBO's Projection of Potential Output Since 2007," Reports 45150, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "Revisions to CBO's Projection of Potential Output Since 2007," Reports 45150, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "Revisions to CBO's Projection of Potential Output Since 2007," Reports 45150, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jeff Mollins & Pierre St-Amant, 2018. "The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: an ICT Phenomenon?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 35, pages 95-112, Fall.
    2. Claude Bismut & Ismael Ramajo, 2019. "Nominal and real interest rates in OECD countries," CEE-M Working Papers hal-02355139, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    3. Di Bella, Gabriel & Grigoli, Francesco, 2019. "Optimism, pessimism, and short-term fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
    4. David Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2017. "Prices of high-tech products, mismeasurement, and the pace of innovation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 103-113, April.
    5. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    6. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2018. "Stagnation Traps," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1425-1470.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
    8. Paul Beaudry & Tim Willems, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 38-59, January.
    9. James Hebden & J. David López-Salido, 2018. "From Taylor's Rule to Bernanke's Temporary Price Level Targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-051, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2017. "Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 329, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    11. Claude Bismut & Ismael Ramajo, 2019. "Nominal and real interest rates in OECD countries," Working Papers hal-02355139, HAL.
    12. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2022. "Economic sentiments and international risk sharing," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 208-229.
    13. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2019. "Loss aversion, economic sentiments and international consumption smoothing," Working Papers 35, European Stability Mechanism.
    14. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Lucyna Gornicka, 2020. "Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?," IMF Working Papers 2020/024, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Claudio Borio, 2017. "Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 87-98, April.
    16. Tang, Jianmin & Wang, Weimin, 2020. "Technological frontier, technical efficiency and the post-2000 productivity slowdown in Canada," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 12-25.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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