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Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation

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  • Stanley Fischer
Abstract
The recent appreciation of the dollar is widely believed to have reduced the output costs of the disinflation. But there remains the question of whether those early gains have to be repaid when the exchange rate depreciates.The first question taken up is the effect of real exchange rate appreciation on the sacrifice ratio, or output cost, of disinflation. There is no unambiguous presumption that exchange rate appreciation reduces the sacrifice ratio. The direct favorable effects of cheaper imports on consumer prices, on the prices of imported inputs, and on wage demands, may be outweighed by the unemployment resulting from the reduced demand for exports. In the second part of the paper I examine the affects of wage indexation on the sacrifice ratio. Economists have argued that wage indexation speeds up disinflation; policymakers take the opposite view. The distinction between ex ante and ex post indexing, defined in the paper, explains these different views. Ex ante wage indexation speeds up disinflation. With expost indexation the real wage automatically rises when the inflation rate falls. Even so, ex post indexing may speed up disinflation. But there has to be subsequent downward adjustment of the wage if long-term unemployment is to be prevented.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanley Fischer, 1984. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1497
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1991. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 239-277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Okun, Arthur M, 1978. "Efficient Disinflationary Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 348-352, May.
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    4. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1983. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation: Some Further Results," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 317-368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Stanley Fischer, 1984. "Contracts, Credibility, and Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. David Backus & John Driffill, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Policy Credibility Following a Change in Regime," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(2), pages 211-221.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 1981. "Inflation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 0708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1995. "A simple model of disinflation and the optimality of doing nothing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1385-1404, August.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
    4. Federico Echenique & Alvaro Forteza, 2000. "Are stabilization programs expansionary?," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(1), pages 65-89.
    5. Francesco Giavazzi & Alberto Giovannini, 1987. "Exchange rates and prices in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 123(4), pages 592-605, December.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mr. Esteban Jadresic, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Wage Indexation Revisited," IMF Working Papers 1998/015, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Helpman, Elhanan & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1988. "Stabilization in high inflation countries: Analytical foundations and recent experience," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 9-84, January.
    10. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. M. Ali Choudhary & Saima Mahmood & Sajawal Khan & Waqas Ahmed & Gylfi Zoega, 2013. "Sticky Wages in a Developing Country: Lessons from Structured Interviews in Pakistan," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0213, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    12. Marek Dabrowski, 2002. "Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economis: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons," CASE Network Reports 0051, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    13. Vittorio Corbo & Stanley Fischer, "undated". "Lessons from the Chilean Stabilization and Recovery," Documentos de Trabajo 158, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    14. Fishman, Arthur, 1992. "Search Technology, Staggered Price-Setting, and Price Dispersion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 287-298, March.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    16. Vittorio Corbo, 1998. "Reaching One-Digit Inflation: The Chilean Experience," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 123-163, November.
    17. Usman A. Afridi & Rehana Siddiqui, 1994. "Framework for Deriving Real Exchange Rates," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1099-1112.
    18. Vegh, Carlos, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," MPRA Paper 20175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Michael Bruno & Sylvia Piterman, 1987. "Israel's Stabilization: A Two-Year Review," NBER Working Papers 2398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Corbo, Vittorio & Solimano, Andres, 1991. "Chile's experience with stabilization, revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 579, The World Bank.
    21. Vittorio Corbo, "undated". "Reducing Inflation. The Chilean Experience," Documentos de Trabajo 185, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

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