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Monetary Instruments and Policy Rules in a Rational Expectations Environment

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  • Michael Dotsey
  • Robert G. King
Abstract
This paper explores the implications of rational expectations and the aggregate supply theory advanced by Lucas (1973) for analysis of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty along the lines of Poole (1970), returning to a topic initially treated by Sargent and Wallace (1975). Not surprisingly, these two "classical"concepts alter both the menu of feasible policy choice and the desirability of certain policy actions. In our setup, unlike that of Sargent and Wallace (1975),the systematic component of monetary policy is a relevant determinant of the magnitudeof "business fluctuations" that arise from shocks to the system. Central bank behavior--both the selection of monetary instruments and the framing of overall policyrespJnse to economic conditions--can work to diminish or increase the magnitude of business fluctuations. However, the "activist" policies stressed by the present discussion bear little (if any) relationship to the policy options rationalized by the conventional analysis of monetary policy under uncertainty. In particular,in contrast to Poole's analysis, money supply responses to the nominal interestrate are not important determinants of real economic activity. Rather, the central bank should focus on policies that make movements in the general price level readily identifiable by economic agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King, 1983. "Monetary Instruments and Policy Rules in a Rational Expectations Environment," NBER Working Papers 1114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    3. McCallum, B. T. & Whitaker, J. K., 1979. "The effectiveness of fiscal feedback rules and automatic stabilizers under rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 171-186, April.
    4. Howitt, Peter W, 1981. "Activist Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 249-269, April.
    5. McCallum, Bennett T, 1980. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 716-746, November.
    6. Weiss, Laurence M, 1980. "The Role for Active Monetary Policy in a Rational Expectations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 221-233, April.
    7. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    8. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
    9. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hetzel, Robert L., 1998. "U.S. monetary policy and monetary policy and the ESCB," ZEI Working Papers B 09-1998, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    2. Robert L. Hetzel, 2004. "How do central banks control inflation?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 90(Sum), pages 46-63.
    3. Robert L. Hetzel, 1993. "A quantity theory framework for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 35-48.
    4. Warren E. Weber, 1984. "Output variability in an open-economy macro model with variance-dependent parameters," Staff Report 94, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Joseph E. Gagnon & Dale W. Henderson, 1990. "Nominal interest rate pegging under alternative expectations hypotheses," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 438-473.
    6. Peter Stemp, 1993. "Optimal money supply rules under asymmetric objective criteria," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 215-232, October.
    7. Robert L. Hetzel, 1986. "A critique of theories of money stock determination," Working Paper 86-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    8. Michael Dotsey, 1991. "Open Market Operations in Australia: A US Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(3), pages 243-256, September.
    9. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    10. Robert L. Hetzel, 1988. "The monetary responsibilities of a central bank," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 74(Sep), pages 19-31.
    11. Jürgen Hagen & Manfred Neumann, 1990. "Relative price risk in an open economy with fixed and flexible exchange rates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 269-289, October.
    12. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2010. "Dissecting Taylor rules in a structural VAR," Working Papers 2010-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Bali, Turan G. & Thurston, Thom B., 2002. "On the efficiency of monetary policy rules with flexible prices and rational expectations," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 615-631.
    14. Victor Argy & Anthony Brennan & Glenn Stevens, 1990. "Monetary Targeting: The International Experience," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 66(1), pages 37-62, March.
    15. John H. Boyd & Michael Dotsey, 1990. "Interest rate rules and nominal determinacy," Working Paper 90-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    16. Bindseil, Ulrich, 1997. "Die Stabilisierungswirkungen von Mindestreserven," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1997,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Dotsey, Michael & King, Robert G, 1986. "Informational Implications of Interest Rate Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 33-42, March.
    18. Michael Dotsey, 1987. "Monetary control under alternative operating procedures," Working Paper 87-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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