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Housing markets and migration – Evidence from New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Dean Hyslop

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Trinh Le

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • David C. Maré

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Steven Stillman

    (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano)

Abstract
This paper analyses the relationship between local area housing and population size and migrant-status composition, using population data from the 1986–2013 New Zealand Censuses, house sales price data from Quotable Value New Zealand, rent data from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, and building consents data from Statistics New Zealand. Measured at the Territorial Local Authority and Auckland Ward (TAW) area level, we estimate the elasticity of house prices with respect to population is 0.4-0.65, similar but smaller elasticity of apartment prices, but find no evidence of any local population effects on rents. We also estimate the elasticity of housing quantity with respect to population of about 0.9. Although international migration flows are an important contributor to population fluctuations, we find little evidence of systematic effects of international or domestic migrant composition of the local population on prices or quantity. In particular, despite there being a strong correlation between immigration and house price changes nationally, there is no evidence that local house or apartment prices are positively related to the share of new immigrants in an area. Repeating the analysis for more narrowly defined areas within Auckland, we estimate a smaller house price elasticity with respect to population in the range 0–0.15. Finally, our analysis suggests that longer-term housing supply is relatively elastic, and demand inelastic, with respect to price.

Suggested Citation

  • Dean Hyslop & Trinh Le & David C. Maré & Steven Stillman, 2019. "Housing markets and migration – Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers 19_14, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:19_14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2023. "Decomposing the impact of immigration on house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Nathan, Max, 2013. "The Wider Economic Impacts of High-Skilled Migrants: A Survey of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 7653, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Sa, Filipa, 2011. "Immigration and House Prices in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 5893, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Chao Li & John Gibson & Geua Boe-Gibson, 2022. "Rising immigration and falling native-born home ownership: a spatial econometric analysis for New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(3), pages 318-325, September.
    5. Kathrin Degen & Andreas M. Fischer, 2017. "Immigration and Swiss House Prices," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(1), pages 15-36, January.
    6. Rivera, Luis & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo, 2009. "Human Capital Formation and the Linkage between Trade and Poverty: The Cases of Costa Rica and Nicaragua," Conference papers 331887, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Rosa Sanchis-Guarner, 2014. "First-Come First-Served: Identifying the Demand Effect of Immigration Inflows on House Prices," SERC Discussion Papers 0160, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    9. Rob Hodgson & Jacques Poot, 2011. "New Zealand Research on the Economic Impacts of Immigration 2005-2010: Synthesis and Research Agenda," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1104, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    10. Dr Max Nathan, 2013. "The wider economic impacts of high-skilled migrants: a survey of the literature," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 413, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    11. Gihleb, Rania & Giuntella, Osea & Lonsky, Jakub, 2023. "Dreaming of leaving the nest? Immigration status and the living arrangements of DACAmented," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    12. Smith, Christie & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2019. "Skilled migration and business cycle dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Hippolyte d’Albis & Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly, 2019. "International Migration and Regional Housing Markets: Evidence from France," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 42(2), pages 147-180, March.
    14. Isil Erol & Umut Unal, 2023. "Local House Price Effects of Internal Migration in Queensland: Australia's Interstate Migration Capital," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 308-327, September.
    15. Accetturo, Antonio & Manaresi, Francesco & Mocetti, Sauro & Olivieri, Elisabetta, 2014. "Don't stand so close to me: The urban impact of immigration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
    16. Isil Erol & Umut Unal, 2021. "Local House Price Effects of Internal Migration in Queensland: Australia’s New Interstate Migration Capital," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202124, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Morteza Moallemi & Daniel Melser, 2020. "The impact of immigration on housing prices in Australia," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(3), pages 773-786, June.
    18. World Bank Group, 2015. "Malaysia Economic Monitor, December 2015," World Bank Publications - Reports 23565, The World Bank Group.
    19. Tsui, Kan Wai Hong & Tan, David & Chow, Clement Kong Wing & Shi, Song, 2019. "Regional airline capacity, tourism demand and housing prices: A case study of New Zealand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 8-22.
    20. Sona Kalantaryan, 2013. "Housing Market Responses to Immigration; Evidence from Italy," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/83, European University Institute.
    21. Patricia Fraser & Lynn McAlevey, 2015. "New Zealand regional house prices and macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 279-300, December.
    22. Bill Cochrane & Jacques Poot, 2019. "The Effects of Immigration on Local Housing Markets," Working Papers in Economics 19/07, University of Waikato.
    23. Mark Skidmore, 2014. "Housing Affordability: Lessons from the United States," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/11, New Zealand Treasury.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; population; housing markets; house prices; rents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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