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Wind of Change? Experimental Survey Evidence on the COVID-19 Shock and Socio-Political Attitudes in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Gianmarco Daniele
  • Andrea F.M. Martinangeli
  • Francesco Passarelli
  • Willem Sas
  • Lisa Windsteiger
Abstract
This paper investigates whether the COVID-19 crisis has affected the way we vote and think about politics, as well as our broader attitudes and underlying value systems. We ï¬ elded large online survey experiments in Italy, Spain, Germany and the Netherlands, well into the ï¬ rst wave of the epidemic (May-June), and included outcome questions on trust, voting intentions, policies & taxation, and identity & values. With a randomised survey flow we vary whether respondents are given COVID-19 priming questions ï¬ rst, before answering the outcome questions. With this treatment design we can also disentangle the health and economic effects of the crisis, as well as a potential “rally around the flag†component. We ï¬ nd that the crisis has brought about severe drops in interpersonal and institutional trust, as well as lower support for the EU and social welfare spending ï¬ nanced by taxes. This is largely due to economic anxiety rather than health concerns. A rallying effect around (scientiï¬ c) expertise combined with populist policies losing ground forms the other side of this coin, and hints at a rising demand for competent leadership.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Francesco Passarelli & Willem Sas & Lisa Windsteiger, 2020. "Wind of Change? Experimental Survey Evidence on the COVID-19 Shock and Socio-Political Attitudes in Europe," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2020-10, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:mpi:wpaper:tax-mpg-rps-2020-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Siria Angino & Federico M Ferrara & Stefania Secola, 2022. "The cultural origins of institutional trust: The case of the European Central Bank," European Union Politics, , vol. 23(2), pages 212-235, June.
    3. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    4. Ferraresi, Massimiliano & Gucciardi, Gianluca, 2022. "Political alignment, centralisation, and the sense of government unpreparedness during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Antoci, Angelo & Sabatini, Fabio & Sacco, Pier Luigi & Sodini, Mauro, 2022. "Experts vs. policymakers in the COVID-19 policy response," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 22-39.
    7. Bellani Luna & Fazio Andrea & Scervini Francesco, 2023. "Collective negative shocks and preferences for redistribution: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis in Germany," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 21(2), pages 381-403, June.
    8. Rees-Jones, Alex & D’Attoma, John & Piolatto, Amedeo & Salvadori, Luca, 2022. "Experience of the COVID-19 pandemic and support for safety-net expansion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1090-1104.
    9. Miqdad Asaria & Joan Costa-Font & Frank Cowell, 2023. "How does exposure to COVID-19 influence health and income inequality aversion?," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 61(3), pages 625-647, October.
    10. Chatruc,Marisol Rodriguez & Rozo Villarraga,Sandra Viviana, 2022. "Discrimination Toward Migrants During Crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10091, The World Bank.
    11. Massimo Bordignon & Federico Franzoni & Matteo Gamalerio, 2023. "Is Populism reversible? Evidence from Italian local elections during the pandemic," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def124, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    12. Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Francesco Passarelli & Willem Sas & Lisa Windsteiger, 2020. "Fear and Loathing in Times of Distress Causal Impact of Social and Economic Insecurity on Anti-Immigration Sentiment," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2020-17, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    13. Fuest, Clemens & Immel, Lea & Neumeier, Florian & Peichl, Andreas, 2023. "Does expert information affect citizens’ attitudes toward Corona policies? Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Hamza Umer, 2023. "A selected literature review of the effect of Covid-19 on preferences," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 9(1), pages 147-156, June.
    15. Chatruc, Marisol Rodríguez & Rozo, Sandra V., 2021. "Attitudes Towards Migrants during Crisis Times," IZA Discussion Papers 14319, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Paolo Nicola Barbieri & Beatrice Bonini, 2021. "Political orientation and adherence to social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 483-504, July.
    17. David Weisstanner, 2022. "COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income [Attitudinal polarization towards the redistributive role of the state in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 41(1), pages 96-110.
    18. Wolfgang Stojetz & Neil T. N. Ferguson & Ghassan Baliki & Sarah Fenzl & Patricia Justino & Tilman Brück, 2024. "Institutional trust in the time of corona: Evidence from countermeasures in Germany," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2024-14, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Zsoka Koczan & Alexander Plekhanov, 2024. "Scarred for Life? Recession Experiences, Beliefs and the State," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(4), pages 1074-1111, August.
    20. Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Marina Povitkina & Sverker C. Jagers & Bo Rothstein, 2020. "Institutional Quality Causes Social Trust: Experimental Evidence on Trusting Under the Shadow of Doubt," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2020-04, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Social Trust; Institutional Trust; Survey Experiment; European Union; Welfare; Health; Taxation; Accountability; Populism; Values;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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