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Population Ageing And Intertemporal Consumption: Representative Agent Versus Social Planner

Author

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  • John Creedy
  • Ross Guest
Abstract
This paper examines the optimal path of consumption over time in the context of population ageing. Older age groups are considered to have relatively greater ‘needs’, resulting for example from additional health costs. These differences give rise to the concept of the ‘equivalent number of persons’, as distinct from the population size. Emphasis is given to the difference between a framework involving a representative agent and one in which plans are made by a social planner. The precise conditions under which consumption growth paths are the same under the representative agent and the social planner are established. This equivalence is found to hold only in the case where the social planner’s value judgements are such that individuals are considered to be the appropriate unit of analysis. An alternative assumption, in which equivalent persons are regarded as the appropriate units, is found to give rise to a different optimal consumption path. Numerical examples demonstrate the relative orders of magnitude for a range of parameter values. The differences are found to be potentially important. The choice of appropriate consumption units – individuals or equivalent persons – is far from arbitrary since it involves possibly conflicting value judgements. This choice has implications for policies designed to influence the optimal saving rate, such as superannuation policy and the fiscal balance.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy & Ross Guest, 2006. "Population Ageing And Intertemporal Consumption: Representative Agent Versus Social Planner," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 972, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:972
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    File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-06/972.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Melnikov, N.B. & O'Neill, B.C. & Dalton, M.G., 2012. "Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1475-1483.
    2. John Creedy, 2007. "Policy Evaluation, welfare weights and value judgements: a Reminder," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15.
    3. Fan, Jianshuang & Zhou, Lin & Zhang, Yan & Shao, Shuai & Ma, Miao, 2021. "How does population aging affect household carbon emissions? Evidence from Chinese urban and rural areas," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Changes in the taxation of private pensions: Macroeconomic and welfare effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 693-712.
    5. Lees, Kirdan, 2013. "Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy," NZIER Working Paper 2013/1, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Xin Zhang & Chenhui Ding & Chao Liu & Xianzhong Teng & Ruoman Lv & Yiming Cai, 2023. "The Bilateral Effects of Population Aging on Regional Carbon Emissions in China: Promotion or Inhibition Effect?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-17, November.
    7. Xiaoyu Wang & Chunan Wang, 2020. "How Does Health Status Affect Marginal Utility of Consumption? Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-20, March.
    8. John Creedy & Ross Guest, 2008. "Sustainable Preferences and Damage Abatement:Value Judgments and Implications for Consumption Streams," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1026, The University of Melbourne.

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    Keywords

    Ageing; Intertemporal Consumption;

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