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International Migration Intentions and Illegal Costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe Smuggling Routes

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Friebel
  • Miriam Manchin
  • Mariapia Mendola
  • Giovanni Prarolo
Abstract
Irregular migrants from Africa and the Middle East ow into Europe along land and sea routes under the control of human smugglers. The demise of the Gaddafi regime in 2011 marked the opening of the Central Mediterranean Route for irregular border-crossing between Libya and Italy. This resulted in the immediate expansion of the global smuggling network, which produced an asymmetric reduction in bilateral distance between country pairs across the Mediterranean sea. We exploit this source of spatial and time variation in irregular migration routes to estimate the elasticity of migration intentions to illegal moving costs proxied by distance. We build a novel dataset of geolocalized time-varying migration routes, combined with cross-country survey data on individual intentions to move from Africa (and the Middle East) into Europe. Netting out any country-by-time and pair-level confounders we find a large negative effect of distance along smuggling routes on individual migration intentions. Shorter distances increase the willingness to migrate especially for youth, (medium) skilled individuals and those with a network abroad. The effect is stronger in countries closer to Libya and with weak rule of law.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Friebel & Miriam Manchin & Mariapia Mendola & Giovanni Prarolo, 2018. "International Migration Intentions and Illegal Costs: Evidence from Africa-to-Europe Smuggling Routes," Working Papers 393, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:393
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Temporary foreign work permits: Honing the tools to defeat human smuggling," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Elijah Yendaw, 2022. "Cross-Border Migration of Itinerant Immigrant Retailers in Ghana," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 205-225, March.
    3. Naiditch, Claire & Vranceanu, Radu, 2020. "A matching model of the market for migrant smuggling services," ESSEC Working Papers WP2002, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    4. Ajzenman, Nicolás & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Guriev, Sergei, 2022. "Exposure to transit migration: Public attitudes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Cevat Giray Aksoy & Panu Poutvaara, 2019. "Refugees' and Irregular Migrants' Self-Selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7781, CESifo.
    6. Timothy J. Hatton, 2020. "Asylum Migration to the Developed World: Persecution, Incentives, and Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 75-93, Winter.
    7. Beine, Michel & Bierlaire, Michel & Docquier, Frédéric, 2021. "New York, Abu Dhabi, London or Stay at Home? Using a Cross-Nested Logit Model to Identify Complex Substitution Patterns in Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 14090, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2022. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: insights from a multilevel analysis [Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 289-323.
    9. Fuchs, Andreas & Gröger, André & Heidland, Tobias & Wellner, Lukas, 2023. "The effect of foreign aid on migration: Global micro evidence from world bank projects," Kiel Working Papers 2257, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Di Maio, Michele & Leone Sciabolazza, Valerio & Molini, Vasco, 2023. "Migration in Libya: A spatial network analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    11. Olivier CHARLOT & Claire NAIDITCH & Radu VRANCEANU, 2022. "Migrant Smuggling to Europe: a Matching Model," THEMA Working Papers 2022-05, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    12. Tim Hatton, 2020. "European asylum policy before and after the migration crisis," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 480-480, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Migration; Human Smuggling; Illegal Migration; Libyan Civil War;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K23 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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