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Are Bankers "Crying Wolf"? The Risk-Based Approach to Money-Laundering Regulation and its Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Lucia Dalla Pellegrina
  • Giorgio Di Maio
  • Donato Masciandaro
  • Margherita Saraceno
Abstract
Excessive and useless reporting, called the "crying wolf effect", is a crucial shortcoming that any anti-money laundering (AML) design aims to address. For this reason, in recent years, AML policies in both the US and Europe have switched from a rule-based approach to a riskbased approach. This study theoretically and empirically investigates whether the risk-based approach delivers the expected results. The theoretical model shows that a trade-off can emerge between accuracy – fewer type-I and type-II errors – and deterrence. The empirical analysis, conducted after the risk-based approach was introduced in Italy, confirms such a trade-off. More specifically, deterrence is maximized, while accuracy is sacrificed. In this respect, the data suggest that Italian bankers are likely to “cry wolf”.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucia Dalla Pellegrina & Giorgio Di Maio & Donato Masciandaro & Margherita Saraceno, 2020. "Are Bankers "Crying Wolf"? The Risk-Based Approach to Money-Laundering Regulation and its Effects," Working Papers 444, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:444
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anti-Money Laundering; Suspicious Transaction Reporting; Standard of evidence; Type-I error; Type-II error; Deterrence; Italy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • K2 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law
    • K4 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior

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