[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mde/wpaper/0075.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is All Infrastructure Investment Created Equal? The Case of Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Alfredo Marvão Pereira

    (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg VA 23187)

  • Rui Manuel Pereira

    (Department of Economics, The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg VA 23187)

Abstract
Using a newly-developed data set, we analyze the effects of infrastructure investment on economic performance in Portugal. A vector-autoregressive approach estimates the elasticity and marginal products of twelve types of infrastructure investment on private investment, employment and output. We find that the largest long-term accumulated effects come from investments in railroads, ports, airports, health, education, and telecommunications. For these infrastructures, the output multipliers suggest that these investments pay for themselves through additional tax revenues. For investments in ports, airports and education infrastructures, the bulk of the effects are short-term demand-side effects, while for railroads, health, and telecommunications, the impact is mostly of a long term and supply side nature. Finally, investments in health and airports exhibit decreasing marginal returns, with railroads, ports, and telecommunications being relatively stable. In terms of the other infrastructure assets, the economic effects of investments in municipal roads, electricity and gas, and refineries are insignificant, while investments in national roads, highways, and waste and waste water have positive economic effects, but too small to improve the public budget. Clearly, from a policy perspective, not all infrastructure investments in Portugal are created equal.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Is All Infrastructure Investment Created Equal? The Case of Portugal," GEE Papers 0075, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Aug 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gee.gov.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_75.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2017
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    3. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2013. "Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 89-142.
    4. Cottarelli, Carlo & Gerson, Philip & Senhadji, Abdelhak (ed.), 2014. "Post-crisis Fiscal Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262027186, April.
    5. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    6. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-1196, September.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    8. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    9. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2010. "On the Economic and Fiscal Effects of Investments in Road Infrastructures in Portugal," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 465-492, September.
    10. Pereira, Alfredo Marvao & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2003. "Spillover effects of public capital formation: evidence from the Spanish regions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 238-256, March.
    11. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Oriol Roca-Sagales, 2007. "Public infrastructure and regional asymmetries in Spain," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 503-519.
    12. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
    13. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    14. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2003. "On the Impact of Public Investment On the Performance of U.S. Industries," Public Finance Review, , vol. 31(1), pages 66-90, January.
    15. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    16. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    17. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    18. Alicia H. Munnell, 1992. "Policy Watch: Infrastructure Investment and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 189-198, Fall.
    19. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    20. Pereira, Alfredo M. & de Frutos, Rafael Flores, 1999. "Public Capital Accumulation and Private Sector Performance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 300-322, September.
    21. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
    22. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
    23. Alfredo Pereira & Jorge Andraz, 2004. "Public highway spending and state spillovers in the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 785-788.
    24. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2005. "Public Investment in Transportation Infrastructure and Economic Performance in Portugal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 177-196, May.
    25. Pereira, Alfredo Marvao & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2003. "Erratum to "Spillover effects of public capital formation: evidence from the Spanish regions": [Journal of Urban Economics 53 (2003) 238-256]," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 197-197, July.
    26. Alfredo M. Pereira, 2000. "Is All Public Capital Created Equal?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 513-518, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jagannath Mallick, 2019. "The effects of government investment shocks on private investment: Empirical evidence from the developing economy," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 291-316, December.
    2. Rocha, Bruno T. & Afonso, Nuno & Melo, Patrícia C. & de Abreu e Silva, João, 2022. "What drives the allocation of motorways? Evidence from Portugal's fast-expanding network," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2017. "Panama: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2017/106, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Rocha, Bruno T. & Melo, Patrícia C. & Afonso, Nuno & de Abreu e Silva, João, 2023. "The local impacts of building a large motorway network: Urban growth, suburbanisation, and agglomeration," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    5. Ms. Kimberly Beaton & Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, 2017. "Panama’s Growth Prospects: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives," IMF Working Papers 2017/150, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Myck, Michal & Najsztub, Mateusz, 2019. "Policy in the Pipeline: Identifying Regional Public Investment Priorities Using a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 12220, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Patrícia C. Melo & Conceição Rego & Paulo R. Anciães & Nuno Guiomar & José Muñoz‐Rojas, 2022. "Does road accessibility to cities support rural population growth? Evidence for Portugal between 1991 and 2011," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 443-470, March.
    8. Patrícia C. Melo & Conceição Rego & Paulo Rui Anciães & Nuno Guiomar & José Muñoz-Rojas, 2021. "Does road accessibility to cities support rural population growth? Evidence for Portugal for the 1991-2011 period," Working Papers REM 2021/0165, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Bruno T. Rocha & Patrícia C. Melo & Nuno Afonso & João de Abreu e Silva, 2021. "Motorways, urban growth, and suburbanisation:evidence from three decades of motorway construction in Portugal," Working Papers REM 2021/0174, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2016. "Identifying Priorities in Infrastructure Investment in Portugal," Working Papers 157, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    2. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Why Virtuous Supply-Side Effects and Irrelevant Keynesian Effects are not Foregone Conclusions: What we Learn from an Industry-Level Analysis of Infrastructure Investments in Portugal," GEE Papers 0076, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Aug 2017.
    3. Alfredo Marvão Pereira and Rui Manuel Pereira, 2020. "Infrastructure Investment, Labor Productivity, and International Competitiveness: The Case of Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 1-29, June.
    4. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "Infrastructure Investment in Portugal and the Traded/Non-Traded Industry Mix," GEE Papers 0078, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2017.
    5. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2012. "On The Economic Effects Of Investment In Railroad Infrastructures In Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 79-107, June.
    6. Alfredo M. Pereira & Rui M. Pereira & Pedro G. Rodrigues, 2019. "Health care investments and economic performance in Portugal: an industry level analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(6), pages 1174-1200, October.
    7. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2013. "On The Economic Effects Of Public Infrastructure Investment: A Survey Of The International Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-37, December.
    8. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2019. "How Does Infrastructure Investment Affect Macroeconomic Performance? Evidence from Portugal," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 11(1-2), pages 14-40, June.
    9. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui Manuel Pereira, 2017. "On the Effects of Infrastructure Investments on Industrial CO2 Emissions in Portugal," GEE Papers 0081, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Oct 2017.
    10. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    11. Pereira, Alfredo Marvao & Roca-Sagales, Oriol, 2003. "Spillover effects of public capital formation: evidence from the Spanish regions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 238-256, March.
    12. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Maria de Fátima Pinho & José da Silva Costa, 2005. "On the Long-term Economic and Budgetary Effects of Public-Sector Investment," ERSA conference papers ersa05p146, European Regional Science Association.
    13. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2007. "Public Investment In Transportation Infrastructures And Industry Performance In Portugal," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 1-20, June.
    14. Alfredo Marvao Pereira & Maria De Fatima Pinho, 2006. "Impact of Public Investment Upon Economic Performance and Budgetary Consolidation Efforts in the European Union," ERSA conference papers ersa06p122, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Oriol Roca-Sagales, 2007. "Public infrastructure and regional asymmetries in Spain," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 503-519.
    16. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: un'applicazione empirica [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variables: an empirical application]," MPRA Paper 88516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Federici, Andrea, 2018. "Il rapporto tra capitale pubblico e altre variabili macroeconomiche: analisi della letteratura [The relationship between public capital and other macroeconomic variable: a literature review]," MPRA Paper 88515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Valter Di Giacinto & Giacinto Micucci & Pasqualino Montanaro, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Infrastructures: A Literature Review and Empirical Analysis on the Case of Italy," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 1, March.
    19. Alfredo M. Pereira & Jorge M. Andraz, 2008. "On the Regional Incidence of Public Investment in Highways in the USA," Working Papers 70, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary, revised 15 Sep 2010.
    20. Alfredo Pereira & Jorge Andraz, 2012. "On the economic and budgetary effects of investments in SCUTS: the Portuguese toll-free highways," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(1), pages 321-338, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infrastructure Investment; Multipliers; Budgetary Effects; VAR; Portugal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joana Almodovar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/geegvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.