[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mol/ecsdps/esdp12067.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Were multinational banks taking excessive risks before the recent financial crisis?

Author

Listed:
  • Gulamhussen, Mohamed Azzim
  • Pinheiro, Carlos
  • Pozzolo, Alberto Franco
Abstract
The recent financial crisis has clearly shown that the relationship between bank internationalization and risk is complex. Multinational banks can benefit from portfolio diversification, reducing their overall riskiness, but this effect can be offset by incentives going in the opposite direction, leading them to take on excessive risks. Since both effects are grounded on solid theoretical arguments, the answer of what is the actual relationship between bank internationalization and risk is left to the empirical analysis. In this paper, we study such relationship in the period leading to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. For a sample of 384 listed banks from 56 countries, we calculate two measures of risk for the period from 2001 to 2007 – the expected default frequency (EDF), a market-based and forward-looking indicator, and the Z-score, a balance-sheet-based and backward-looking measure – and relate them to their degree of internationalization. We find robust evidence that international diversification increases bank risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Gulamhussen, Mohamed Azzim & Pinheiro, Carlos & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2012. "Were multinational banks taking excessive risks before the recent financial crisis?," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp12067, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp12067
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web.unimol.it/progetti/repec/mol/ecsdps/ESDP12067.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Franco Pozzolo, 2009. "Bank Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions: Causes, Consequences, and Recent Trends," Springer Books, in: Alberto Zazzaro & Michele Fratianni & Pietro Alessandrini (ed.), The Changing Geography of Banking and Finance, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 155-183, Springer.
    2. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache & Ouarda Merrouche, 2013. "Bank Capital: Lessons from the Financial Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1147-1164, September.
    3. Focarelli, Dario & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2001. "The patterns of cross-border bank mergers and shareholdings in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 2305-2337, December.
    4. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2007. "Is there a diversification discount in financial conglomerates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 331-367, August.
    5. Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2002. "Cost and Profit Efficiency of Financial Conglomerates and Universal Banks in Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 254-282, February.
    6. Fiordelisi, Franco & Marques-Ibanez, David & Molyneux, Phil, 2011. "Efficiency and risk in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1315-1326, May.
    7. De Haan, Jakob & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2012. "Bank size, market concentration, and bank earnings volatility in the US," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 35-54.
    8. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    9. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    10. Yener Altunbas & Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques-Ibanez, 2010. "Does monetary policy affect bank risk-taking?," BIS Working Papers 298, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Mr. Gianni De Nicolo & Abu M. Jalal & John H. Boyd, 2006. "Bank Risk-Taking and Competition Revisited: New Theory and New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2006/297, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Alberto Zazzaro & Michele Fratianni & Pietro Alessandrini (ed.), 2009. "The Changing Geography of Banking and Finance," Springer Books, Springer, edition 1, number 978-0-387-98078-2, December.
    13. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    14. Gianni De Nicolo & Elena Loukoianova, 2007. "Bank ownership, market structure, and risk," Proceedings 1058, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    15. Stewart C. Myers & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1998. "The Paradox of Liquidity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 733-771.
    16. Baele, Lieven & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2007. "Does the stock market value bank diversification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1999-2023, July.
    17. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2010. "Bank risk and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 121-129, September.
    18. Joseph P. Hughes & William W. Lang & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 1996. "Efficient banking under interstate branching," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 1045-1075.
    19. Stiroh, Kevin J. & Rumble, Adrienne, 2006. "The dark side of diversification: The case of US financial holding companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2131-2161, August.
    20. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2010. "Bank activity and funding strategies: The impact on risk and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 626-650, December.
    21. Giorgio Barba Navaretti & Giacomo Calzolari & Alberto Franco Pozzolo & Micol Levi, 2010. "Multinational banking in Europe – financial stability and regulatory implications: lessons from the financial crisis [Cross subsidies, external financing constraints, and the contribution of the in," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 703-753.
    22. Claudia M. Buch & John C. Driscoll & Charlotte Ostergaard, 2010. "Cross‐Border Diversification in Bank Asset Portfolios," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 79-108, March.
    23. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    24. Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
    25. Buch, Claudia M. & Lipponer, Alexander, 2007. "FDI versus exports: Evidence from German banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 805-826, March.
    26. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2007. "Governance Matters VI: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators, 1996-2006," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4280, The World Bank.
    27. Yener Altunbas & Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques-Ibanez, 2014. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Bank Risk?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 95-136, March.
    28. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    29. Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen & Carlos Pinheiro & Alberto Franco Pozzolo, 2010. "Do multinational banks create or destroy economic value?," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 36, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    30. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    31. Deng, Saiying (Esther) & Elyasiani, Elyas & Mao, Connie X., 2007. "Diversification and the cost of debt of bank holding companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2453-2473, August.
    32. Williams, Jonathan, 2004. "Determining management behaviour in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2427-2460, October.
    33. Jorion, Philippe & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2007. "Good and bad credit contagion: Evidence from credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 860-883, June.
    34. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2009. "The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 606-610, May.
    35. Amihud, Yakov & DeLong, Gayle L. & Saunders, Anthony, 2002. "The effects of cross-border bank mergers on bank risk and value," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 857-877, November.
    36. Pietro Alessandrini & Michele Fratianni & Alberto Zazzaro, 2009. "The Changing Geography of Banking and Finance: The Main Issues," Springer Books, in: Alberto Zazzaro & Michele Fratianni & Pietro Alessandrini (ed.), The Changing Geography of Banking and Finance, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 1-11, Springer.
    37. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    38. Viral V. Acharya & Iftekhar Hasan & Anthony Saunders, 2006. "Should Banks Be Diversified? Evidence from Individual Bank Loan Portfolios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1355-1412, May.
    39. Dario Focarelli & Alberto Franco Pozzolo, 2005. "Where Do Banks Expand Abroad? An Empirical Analysis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2435-2464, November.
    40. Mercieca, Steve & Schaeck, Klaus & Wolfe, Simon, 2007. "Small European banks: Benefits from diversification?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1975-1998, July.
    41. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    42. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Stulz, Rene M., 2003. "Are financial assets priced locally or globally?," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 975-1020, Elsevier.
    43. Saiying (Esther) Deng & Elyas Elyasiani, 2008. "Geographic Diversification, Bank Holding Company Value, and Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1217-1238, September.
    44. R. Vander Vennet & O. De Jonghe & L. Baele, 2004. "Bank risks and the business cycle," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/264, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    45. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    46. Barbara Casu & Laura Chiaramonte, 2011. "Are Cds spreads a good proxy of bank risk? Evidence from the recent financial crisis," BANCARIA, Bancaria Editrice, vol. 11, pages 82-98, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gulamhussen, M.A. & Pinheiro, Carlos & Pozzolo, Alberto Franco, 2014. "International diversification and risk of multinational banks: Evidence from the pre-crisis period," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 30-43.
    2. Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen & Carlos Pinheiro & Alberto Franco Pozzolo, 2010. "Do multinational banks create or destroy economic value?," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 36, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    3. Jeon, Bang Nam & Wu, Ji & Chen, Limei & Chen, Minghua, 2020. "Diversification, efficiency and risk of banks: New consolidating evidence from emerging economies," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    4. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Bermpei, Theodora, 2014. "What drives investment bank performance? The role of risk, liquidity and fees prior to and during the crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 102-117.
    5. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Küllü, A. Melih & Zhou, Mingming, 2018. "Should banks diversify or focus? Know thyself: The role of abilities," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 106-118.
    6. Wu, Ji & Chen, Limei & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Diversification, efficiency and risk of banks: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    7. Mohamed Azzim Gulamhussen & Carlos Manuel Pinheiro & Alberto Franco Pozzolo, 2017. "Do multinational banks create or destroy shareholder value? A cross‐country analysis," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 295-313, December.
    8. Baselga-Pascual, Laura & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Cardone-Riportella, Clara, 2015. "Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 138-166.
    9. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hsieh, Meng-Fen & Yang, Shih-Jui, 2014. "The relationship between revenue diversification and bank performance: Do financial structures and financial reforms matter?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 18-35.
    10. Khanh Ngoc Nguyen, 2019. "Revenue Diversification, Risk and Bank Performance of Vietnamese Commercial Banks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Zamore, Stephen & Beisland, Leif Atle & Mersland, Roy, 2019. "Geographic diversification and credit risk in microfinance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Westman, Hanna, 2011. "The impact of management and board ownership on profitability in banks with different strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3300-3318.
    13. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Molyneux, Phil, 2018. "Diversification and bank stability in the GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 17-43.
    14. Sarah Sanya & Simon Wolfe, 2011. "Can Banks in Emerging Economies Benefit from Revenue Diversification?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 79-101, October.
    15. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Bermpei, Theodora, 2016. "What is the effect of unconventional monetary policy on bank performance?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-263.
    16. Allen N. Berger & Sadok El Ghoul & Omrane Guedhami & Raluca A. Roman, 2017. "Internationalization and Bank Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(7), pages 2283-2301, July.
    17. Sascha Tobias Wengerek & Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde, 2019. "Risk allocation through securitization - Evidence from non-performing loans," Working Papers Dissertations 58, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    18. Haykel Zouaoui & Faten Zoghlami, 2023. "What do we know about the impact of income diversification on bank performance? A systematic literature review," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 286-309, September.
    19. Nguyen, Thi Lam Anh, 2018. "Diversification and bank efficiency in six ASEAN countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 57-78.
    20. Yang, Hsin-Feng & Liu, Chih-Liang & Yeutien Chou, Ray, 2020. "Bank diversification and systemic risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 311-326.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Risk; Multinational banking; Economic integration; Market structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp12067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Claudio Lupi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsmolit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.